Arc Raiders is what happens when the Prisoner’s Dilemma gets an extraction timer

On one adventure to topside, there was a lone raider under fire from a pack of flying ARCs. While I was in a prime position to ambush the poor raider and fill out my bag with loot, I decided to do something different and shoot down the drones. Afterwards, I slid down and dropped a few bandages, to which they thanked me with gaming’s universal language for peace: spamming crouch.

Just like that, I’ve made an unexpected ally. Wordless, we travelled through the Rust Belt, looting and taking down ARCs and even other raiders. It was ephemeral, as the timer counted down, but that’s what made it beautiful.

Finally, I was punching the code to the extraction elevator, and then next, I was facing a dark loading screen. The betrayal reminded me of a famous thought experiment, and how this small interaction will play out infinitely after Arc Raider’s release date.

The Prisoner’s Dilemma is a foundational model in game theory that illustrates how two rational individuals might make decisions that lead to a worse outcome for both, even though cooperation would benefit them both. Arc Raiders, much more than any other extraction shooter, perfectly encapsulates this during every player interaction, even if they’re unaware of it.

First, let’s look at the classic version of the thought experiment. Two prisoners are charged with a crime and detained. Each is offered a deal separately: betray the other (betray) or remain silent (cooperate). If one betrays and the other stays silent, the betrayer goes free while the silent one gets a harsh sentence. If both stay silent, they each receive a moderate sentence. If both betray, they each receive a worse sentence than if they had cooperated.

As a fellow rational self-serving individual, the answer, especially when everything is on the line, is usually to betray. No matter what the other party does, you’re better off betraying, even at a chance of a higher punishment.

While the simplest model assumes only two players with no chance to communicate, and most importantly, a single interaction. In the game, this becomes more complex as there are other raiders, multiple interactions, gear and skill gaps, Arc Raider’s weapons, but most importantly, the ability to communicate with proximity chat and emotes. Still, interactions with other raiders will play out similarly, especially in solos.

Every raid has the ultimate goal of you safely extracting what you’ve looted in topside. When meeting other players, there’s this tense moment where you’ll have to determine if they’re friendly or hostile. This can either lead to one player eliminating the other and taking all the loot, both players fighting and drawing the attention of ARCs or more raiders, or ideally, cooperate to have safety in numbers.

Here’s the dilemma front and centre: defecting (fighting) is the most rational move, because if you have a gut feeling they’re going to backstab you, then you might as well do it first. In most extraction shooters, this is the best choice, but the genius of Embark Studios is that Arc Raiders incentivises cooperation.

One prevalent discussion from the Arc Raiders’ preload phase, tech tests, and server slams is that the titular ARCs are too difficult. Sure, lone players can easily handle the weaker ones like Ticks, Wasps, Hornets, and Rocketeers if they’re prepared enough, but good luck trying to fend off a Leaper, much less a Bastion, without serious firepower.

These ARCs are difficult; they have to be, or else it doesn’t make sense that they’ve wiped out our humanity and forced us to live underground. Fighting them takes a considerable amount of resources, health, and bullets, not to mention that the noise and chaos attract more ARCs and other raiders. While you could avoid them entirely, you’re missing out on some sweet loot that they’re guarding nearby or from their parts. 

Here’s the Raiders’ dilemma: should you or your squad stay selfish to claim all the loot, you’ll risk inviting even more threats to the party. However, if you can recruit nearby raiders or join an ongoing fight, everyone will be much better for it, at the cost of splitting loot. This decision is even more important against world boss tier ARCs like the Queen.

One of the most memorable quotes in Red Dead Redemption 2 comes near the end of the game. As protagonist Arthur Morgan regrets the hard choices he has made throughout his life, a Sister tells him to take a gamble that love exists and do a loving act. 

This brings us back again to the Raiders’ dilemma. Players who choose kindness and cooperation will sometimes have success teaming up with strangers, or they will be betrayed and lose it all. However, players who always choose violence will always be met with violence. 

Nice players could end up becoming jaded and continue the cycle of violence, or they could continue gambling on cooperation to keep the kindness going.