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Over on MainFT, Soumaya Keynes has been writing about the jobs recession among PhD economists. Government isn’t hiring, universities aren’t hiring. But not to worry, there’ll always be a demand among Wall Street firms seeking to get an edge on where the latest employment number will land, right?
Not if President Trump has anything to do with it.
In an apparent breach of the embargo on federal data releases, and a full day ahead of the actual release, Trump issued his ‘truth’:
The numbers match our sum of the monthly official jobs numbers February through December. So it seems pretty clear-cut. Check out MainFT for some serious analysis.
But did Trump’s ‘Truth’ move the market? It doesn’t look like the Treasury market paid much attention:
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Sure, it wasn’t exactly a blockbuster report. Big revisions, a fall in participation and a pick-up in wages all maybe reduced the likelihood of executing a slam-dunk directional Treasury trade on the back of the leak. Still, the report’s release to the wider market has been enough to give the bond market a bit of a fillip.
How about prediction markets? While it’s not got much depth, Polymarket might’ve offered an easier way to make a quick buck PA. But it doesn’t look like anyone bothered to place a bet here either:
Whether this is a strategy to boost the social media platform’s subscriber base, or execute the knockout blow to economists’ flagging employment prospects, we’ll let you decide.
