Irish voters are going to the polls to elect a new president, with final opinion polls predicting a landslide for Catherine Connolly, an outspoken leftwing independent who has captured the imagination of many younger people.
An opinion poll on Thursday gave Connolly 40% versus 25% for her opponent, Heather Humphreys, a former cabinet minister. When the figures were adjusted for those who are undecided or plan to spoil their vote, Connolly had 55% and Humphreys 35%.
Two polls earlier this week also gave Connolly, 68, a wide lead in the race to succeed Michael D Higgins, who has served two seven-year terms, and become Ireland’s 10th president.
Almost half of voters say they do not feel represented by either candidate, raising concerns about a low turnout and high rate of spoilt ballots.
The presidency is a largely ceremonial office, but victory for the member of parliament from Galway would be a humbling rebuke to the centre-right government. It would also mark a triumph for an alliance of opposition leftwing parties – Sinn Féin, Labour, the Social Democrats, People Before Profit and the Greens – who forged a rare unity to jointly campaign for Connolly.
The Irish-speaking former clinical psychologist and barrister, until recently a marginal political figure, enthused young people through podcasts and posts that went viral on social media. Artists and musicians such as Kneecap and the Mary Wallopers have endorsed her.
Connolly espouses equality and wishes to ringfence Irish neutrality from what she calls western “militarism”. She has compared Germany’s arms spending to the Nazi era and accused the UK and US of enabling genocide in Gaza. Critics depict her as a radical who could damage Ireland’s relations with European allies.
Irish presidents traditionally played quiet, symbolic roles but since 1990 Mary Robinson, Mary McAleese and Higgins have turned the office into a more visible platform to champion plurality, reconciliation with Northern Ireland and ethical foreign policy.
Connolly has promised to respect the limits of the office if she is installed in Áras an Uachtaráin, the presidential residence in Phoenix Park, but supporters hope she will continue to speak out on the housing crisis, hospital waiting lists and foreign affairs.
“The interaction between government and the Áras may be about to enter a new and distinctly less congenial phase,” said the Irish Times.
Nomination rules and blunders by the ruling centre-right coalition created a two-horse race that gave Connolly an edge.
Celebrities such as Bob Geldof, Michael Flatley, Conor McGregor and other would-be candidates failed to win backing from four local councils, or 20 legislators, needed to get their names on the ballot. Geldof said that if nominated he would have “walked it” and been a “really good” president.
Fianna Fáil fielded a political novice, Jim Gavin, who withdrew after a financial scandal imploded his campaign. The late withdrawal means his name remains on the ballot.
Fine Gael’s original candidate, Mairead McGuinness, dropped out, citing health problems, so the party turned to Humphreys, 62, a border county Presbyterian deemed to have mainstream appeal. However, she performed badly in debates and was tainted by association with the government, which is blamed for a housing shortage and cost of living crisis.
Humphreys canvassed in Cork and Clare on Thursday and said she could win the race as the centre-ground candidate. Connolly canvassed in Roscommon and Galway and said victory was not guaranteed. “I am absolutely not taking it for granted, absolutely not. It will be an absolute privilege if the people of Ireland elect me when they cast their vote,” she said.
Polling stations opened at 7am and close at 10pm and the result is expected on Saturday. The eligible electorate is 3.6 million.
