EXCLUSIVE: We know what you’re doing this summer: You’re going to the movies.
Gower Street Analytics told us first that the summer’s global box office is heading to $12.4 billion, which would be a near post Covid record for the season which they measure from May 1-Aug. 31. Summer 2023 remains the champ with around $13.6 billion.
The extreme record temperatures at the B.O. also extend to overseas where foreign ticket sales are also hitting near post-Covid records of $6.3 billion (not including China).
As far as U.S./Canada goes at $4.2 billion, that’s a post pandemic high in Gower’s books, the best since 2019 and 15% better than last year, 5% higher than 2023 and 24% bigger than 2022. The estimate puts North America at 1% above the three-year pre-pandemic average for the period of May-August.
The Middle Kingdom is expected to deliver summer’s forecasted residual of a near $2 billion.
An assembly line of event product means everything; something Hollywood didn’t have prior to the April 2 $313.7M global opening of Warner Bros/Legendary’s A Minecraft Movie, which remains 2025’s highest grossing MPA title at $953.5M, $46.5M short of $1 billion. No sweat, more billion-dollar contenders are coming with Disney Lilo & Stitch ($864M) expected to cross that threshold, not to mention Universal’s nail-biting Scarlett Johansson revival Jurassic World Rebirth in early July, a definitive elevation in the franchise (we’ve seen it!) above Jurassic World: Dominion which despite a 77% Rotten Tomatoes audience score actually minted $1 billion around the globe. Recently, Universal’s How to Train Your Dragon opened to a franchise record of near $200M worldwide.
‘Weapons’
Warner Bros
Among other major releases that will resonate internationally and globally this summer are Apple’s racing drama F1: The Movie which Warner Bros starts releasing on June 27, Warner Bros/DC Studio’s Superman (which has a good shot at a $100M+ opening), Marvel/Disney’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps in late July, as well as August’s The Naked Gun reboot from Paramount (physical comedies, remember, do rally in German-speaking territories and Spain), Uni/DreamWorks Animation’s The Bad Guys 2 as well as Warner Bros’ Zach Cregger’s horror defying Weapons which, like its children protags, should have moviegoers getting up in the middle of the night and fleeing to their local cinema.
That $12.4B global forecast per Gower is +8% vs. last summer, -10% vs. 2023 and +22% above 2022. Overall, it would be 9% below the three-year pre-pandemic average (2017-2019) for this season. Note that the numbers are weighted down mainly by China which, after a massive start to the year with the $2B+ grossing Ne Zha 2, has not delivered any significant hits in the past months.
The international box office (excluding China) at $6.3B is the best since 2019, +9% on last year, a marginal 3% below 2023 and 16% over 2022, while only 4% below the three-year pre-pandemic average for this period.
The stats come as welcome news for exhibition and major studios at the CineEurope conference which concludes today in Barcelona. In general, the mood there was upbeat, with nearly all the major European markets seeing increases in the first semester versus 2024 year-to-date.
France (-8% in admissions) is the outlier given last year’s first half included local hit A Little Something Extra (Un P’tit Truc en Plus) which would go on to be the biggest movie of 2024 in the market.
Behind France is Germany at $375.M, +1.2%. Italy has seen a huge spike of 17% on a dollar basis). Spain has also surged in the first half of the year, with an increase of $11.3M
The UK notably got a nearly $63M boost from Universal/Studiocanal/Working Title’s Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy which was a theatrical release there whereas it was a Peacock title domestically. Bridget was also big in Germany, France and the Netherlands (the latter market up nearly 5% in dollar terms).
On deck, the UK is further expected to benefit from Sony and Danny Boyle’s 28 Years Later which releases this week, as does Disney/Pixar’s Elio.
On a wider basis, international in general is at $9.362B so far in 2025, a nearly 6% jump over last year; global is $12.86B, a 7.4% hike, per comScore.
In general, the mood has been optimistic in Barcelona, while evergreen concerns like windows, a steady stream of product and investment in cinema upgrades remain. These are ongoing conversations, and all parties need to be mindful.
