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Sir Keir Starmer’s government is preparing for the biggest penal policy shake-up in decades by scrapping jail time for offenders given sentences of less than a year in a push to cut chronic overcrowding in jails in England and Wales.
Justice secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to accept most of the recommendations of an independent review published on Thursday that proposed broad reductions in the length of time criminals spend in prison.
Some offenders would spend only one-third of their term in custody while those given sentences of less than one year would avoid jail entirely other than in “exceptional circumstances”, under the plans put forward by former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke.
Ministers announced Gauke’s review to look for ways to ease a capacity crunch last year after launching an early-release scheme that involved thousands of prisoners. Gauke said his plans for reform would ultimately free up 9,800 prison places.
The proposals were welcomed by legal groups but are likely to trigger political pushback.
Ahead of Gauke’s report, shadow Tory justice secretary Robert Jenrick criticised the government’s plans, saying on X: “He [Starmer] is going to make everyone less safe.”
Mahmood is expected to reject a recommendation from Gauke to allow dangerous offenders to apply for parole halfway through their sentences, rather than two-thirds at present, depending on their behaviour.
“The scale of the crisis we are in cannot be understated”, Gauke said, calling for “decisive action” from ministers.
The measures “should ensure the government is never again in a position where it is forced to rely on the emergency release of prisoners”, he added.
The prison population in England and Wales has roughly doubled over the past 30 years, exceeding 87,000 people, as successive governments introduced longer prison sentences.
The average cost of holding one prisoner in custody for a year was estimated at £53,801 in 2023-24, according to Ministry of Justice data.
Gauke’s review found that short custodial sentences should be applied only in “exceptional circumstances” and called for greater use of deferred sentences.
While short jail sentences “may serve as punishment, they often fall short in providing meaningful rehabilitation to offenders, have a limited deterrent effect and come with high costs”, his report said.
The report cited evidence from former offenders that such sentences can “lead to a merry-go-round of reoffending, entrenching criminal behaviour”.
With “crime reduction” as an overarching principle, the review recommended altering the “statutory purposes” of sentencing to make clear that reform and rehabilitation of offenders are as important as punishment.
The report recommended increasing the maximum length of suspended custodial sentences from two to three years, aimed at offenders with a “realistic prospect” of rehabilitation in the community.
Courts should also be given more flexibility to use ancillary penalties, such as travel, driving and football bans, the review said.
Mahmood is due to provide the government’s response in a statement to parliament later on Thursday. Last week she warned that jails would be full again by November and set out plans for three new prisons.
Earlier this month, Mahmood told the Financial Times that new technology meant criminals spared jail could still be monitored as closely as those who behind bars.
Richard Atkinson, president of the Law Society, which represents solicitors, welcomed the proposals as a “positive shift away from an approach which has focused primarily on punishment”.
But he warned that the criminal justice system also needed investment “to ensure the public can have faith” in it.
Barbara Mills KC, chair of the Bar Council, which speaks for barristers, said: “The government must act on these proposed reforms . . . Now is the time to be bold.”
