Bradford Doolittle
With Memorial Day weekend behind us, the 2025 MLB season has taken shape. The exact outlines will change, but we’re past the point where teams and observers can dismiss anything with the “it’s early” wave of the hand.
That is true for the 30 teams at this first major traditional checkpoint of a baseball season, but it’s also true for players, many of whom have seen enough action that from a statistical standpoint, their rates have stabilized. That makes this a perfect time to take our first glimpse at how the awards races are shaping up.
So as we check in with our initial Awards Watch rankings of the season, we see much that looks similar to where we left off in 2024. In fact, the AXE ratings that feed these rankings see a repeat in the American League MVP race and a back-and-forth battle for a repeat in the National League MVP race.
That’s no surprise, as the first weeks of the 2025 season have done little to change the lofty appraisals of Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani, who continue to do historical things in mesmerizing fashion.
Yet there are new faces here, too, and those are perhaps even more fun because it’s these kinds of emergent stories that add flavor to every new campaign. Can any of these new upstarts challenge the Judge/Ohtani dual dominance over the long haul?
Maybe not, but it’ll be fun to watch them try, and the jockeying for position in the awards derby is already well underway.
Most Valuable Player
American League
Front-runner: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (157 AXE)
Next nine: 2. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners (137); 3. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (133); 4. Alex Bregman, Boston Red Sox (129); 5. Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128); 6. Isaac Paredes, Houston Astros (126); 7. Rafael Devers, Red Sox (124); 8. (tie) Jeremy Pena, Astros (123); Steven Kwan, Cleveland Guardians (123); 10. Jose Ramirez, Guardians (122)
Leader trend: At this point, Judge is competing against himself. Last season, Judge’s 218 wRC+ ranked as the seventh best of the modern era by an AL or NL hitter. In other words, he put up one of the greatest offensive seasons in history. In 2025, he is on track to do even better and has a chance to top Barry Bonds’ 2002 record of 244. He is leading the AL in all three slash categories (homers, RBIs and hits) and runs. He might soon start spurring an onslaught of “Can Judge really hit .400?” articles. The only thing that could derail Judge from unanimous support in MVP balloting is injury.
Biggest mover: For this first edition of Awards Watch, the “biggest mover” measure is based on 2024’s end-of-season numbers. With that in mind, even though Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson (118 AXE) didn’t quite crack the top 10, he deserves mention for bouncing back from a dreadful campaign. Despite being selected first overall by Detroit in 2020, Torkelson entered this season just below replacement for his career. He has turned that around, posting 1.5 bWAR already, topping his 2024 homer and RBI numbers before Memorial Day and upped his OPS+ from 89 to 148. This is what the Tigers had in mind when they picked Tork.
Keep an eye on: Raleigh has staked claim to the title of baseball’s best all-around catcher. Coming off his first Gold Glove, Raleigh has also been one of the game’s best hitters so far. A pure three true outcomes batsman, Raleigh has been even better in those columns, upping his isolated power by homering at a near-Judgian pace, cutting strikeouts (a little) and pushing his walk rate to elite levels. He has also improved his on-contact numbers by replacing some of his ground balls with line drives, resulting in — for him — a batting average breakout (.254).
National League
Front-runner: Pete Crow-Armstrong, Chicago Cubs (138)
Next nine: 2. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (136); 3. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (134); 4. (tie) Geraldo Perdomo, Arizona Diamondbacks (130); Kyle Tucker, Cubs (130); 6. Freddie Freeman, Dodgers (129); 7. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks (127); 8. Will Smith, Dodgers (125); 9. James Wood, Washington Nationals (125); 10. Kyle Schwarber, Philadelphia Phillies (124)
Leader trend: Crow-Armstrong’s emergence has made him one of baseball’s best stories this season. Entering the season, we knew that PCA, as he’s affectionately called, could post elite defense and baserunning metrics. If only he could hit! Would a leap from an 88 to a 145 OPS+ work? How about a pace that could see Crow-Armstrong post a 40/40 season? The strike zone numbers suggest a coming regression — more than five whiffs for every walk — but so far, so great.
Biggest mover: Perdomo has transformed himself at the plate, making him the NL’s top shortstop during the opening months of the season. Always a high-contact hitter, Perdomo has sliced the whiffs even more while adding walks, a tough dual feat to pull off, but it has allowed him to push his OBP near the vaunted .400 line. On top of that, Perdomo has featured more power by matching his career high with six early homers. Match those upgrades with his usual plus defense and an 11-for-11 showing on the base paths, and the Diamondbacks find themselves with an elite shortstop.
Keep an eye on: Ho hum. Doesn’t it seem like Ohtani is ever so slightly off from last season’s unprecedented level? Well, his percentages are on target to match or exceed those numbers. He’s on pace for 57 homers and 171(!) runs. Only his steal numbers are down from last season, but, lest we forget, his metrics might be bolstered by pitching categories in the near future. Meanwhile, even though Ohtani doesn’t lead NL hitters in either of the major versions of WAR, AXE likes his sizable lead in WPA among all NL batsmen.
Cy Young
American League
Front-runner: Kris Bubic, Royals (134)
Next nine: 2. (tie) Max Fried, Yankees (130); Nathan Eovaldi, Texas Rangers (130); 4. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers (129); 5. Garrett Crochet, Red Sox (127); 6. Hunter Brown, Astros (125); 7. Andres Munoz, Mariners (123); 8. (tie) Tyler Mahle, Rangers (121); Bryan Woo, Mariners (121); 10. Joe Ryan, Minnesota Twins (119)
Leader trend: Bubic’s emergence hasn’t exactly come out of nowhere, but he has validated anyone who pegged him as a breakout player for 2025. Bubic is a cerebral lefty who has shaped and reshaped his arsenal during his career, which was interrupted by elbow surgery and rehab. Bubic has sparkled by being aggressive in the zone and has succeeded doing that without top-shelf velocity. It’s not a fluke, though he probably won’t finish with the 1.45 ERA he has posted through 11 outings. Still, this race is just getting started, and the leaderboard is likely to change every time one of these hurlers takes the mound.
Biggest mover: Brown has flashed brilliance before, but in 2025 he has reached another level in blending dominance with consistency. He has put up eight quality starts in 10 outings, leading the AL in that category. His average game score (64.4) ranks just behind Eovaldi, Fried and Skubal atop the circuit.
Keep an eye on: Skubal won it last year going away and has to be considered the favorite to repeat, even if he hasn’t quite returned to the top of the statistical leaderboards. While Skubal’s ERA is up a tiny bit (2.39 to 2.49), his FIP is better (2.49 and 1.98). The latter portends a continuation of the dominance we’ve seen from the Tigers’ ace since last season. Indeed, Skubal’s last start — a complete-game, two-hit, 13-strikeout shutout against Cleveland — was the best outing of his sparkling career.
National League
Front-runner: Jesus Luzardo, Philadelphia Phillies (133)
Next nine: 2. Zack Wheeler, Phillies (130); 3. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (125); 4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers (124); 5. Kodai Senga, New York Mets (121); 6. Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants (119); 7. (tie) Nick Pivetta, Padres (118); Logan Webb, Giants (118); Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds (118); 10. MacKenzie Gore, Nationals (118)
Leader trend: Luzardo was a top-10 prospect when he reached the majors with the A’s in 2019. While Luzardo has had some solid moments in the bigs as he has moved from the A’s to the Marlins to the Phillies, this is the pitcher the prospect wonks envisioned. Everything is better: more strikeouts, fewer walks and a home run rate so low it barely registers. Luzardo’s rise has more than compensated for the early struggles of rotation mate Aaron Nola.
Biggest mover: It’s actually Luzardo, so let’s spotlight Senga, who has bounced back spectacularly after his injury-plagued 2024 season. His ERA through 10 starts (1.46, tops in the NL) almost certainly can’t last, but Senga has emerged as the ace the Mets needed. Through those 10 outings, Senga has faced 228 batters and allowed two — two — home runs. Not bad for a pitcher who pitched in one regular-season game a year ago, then gave up seven runs over five postseason innings.
Keep an eye on: After finishing as runner-up in NL Cy Young balloting last year for the second time in his Phillies career, Wheeler might be even better. His ERA and FIP categories are on target with 2024, but he has been even more dominant in the strikeout and walk categories. According to FanGraphs, only Gore has a better strikeouts-minus-walks percentage, an excellent measure of dominance and sustainability.
Rookie of the Year
American League
Front-runner: Jacob Wilson, Athletics (128)
Next nine: 2. Carlos Narvaez, Red Sox (120); 3. Shane Smith, Chicago White Sox (113); 4. Chase Meidroth, White Sox (111); 5. Cam Smith, Astros (110); 6. (tie) Justin Sterner, Athletics (107); Noah Cameron, Royals (107); Will Warren, Yankees (107); Tomoyuki Sugano, Baltimore Orioles (107); 10. Kameron Misner, Tampa Bay Rays (106)
Leader trend: Wilson might be the most interesting player in the majors. Considering all the things teams hold dear in player development and evaluation these days, how do you account for a player like this? Some of his percentile rankings at Statcast: bat speed (1st, or lowest), hard-hit rate (6th), walk rate (21st) and expected batting average (96th). What?! Wilson has struck out in barely 5% of his plate appearances this season. He swings at everything, contacts everything and everything seems to find a hole. Can it last? Let’s hope so because baseball needs hitters like this to flourish.
Biggest mover: Well, they’re rookies, so we’ll skip this one for this first edition. But rookie rankings change a lot as the season progresses, especially as some of those who will turn out to be among this year’s top first-timers are still in the minors. Possible example: Kansas City’s Jac Caglianone, who has already mashed his way from Double-A to Triple-A and, after homering five times over the weekend, seems intent on slugging all the way to the majors. Check back next month.
Keep an eye on: Kristian Campbell (93 AXE) has risen quickly and become a lineup fixture in Boston. The Red Sox have already rewarded him with an eight-year extension. The future is undoubtedly bright. Though, strictly speaking, his numbers haven’t been anything special. The results should get better, at least at the plate, and as an everyday player on a contending team, Campbell has every chance at being a key part of the Rookie of the Year conversation. But he will need to manifest that improvement.
National League
Front-runner: Chad Patrick, Brewers (113)
Next nine: 2. Drake Baldwin, Atlanta Braves (111); 3. Ben Casparius, Dodgers (110); 4. Logan Henderson, Brewers (107); 5. Liam Hicks, Miami Marlins (106); 6. Tim Tawa, Diamondbacks (104); 7. Max Kranick, Mets (103); 8. Jack Dreyer, Dodgers (103); 9. AJ Smith-Shawver, Braves (102); 10. Isaac Collins, Brewers (101)
Leader trend: The Brewers always seem to come up with one or two (or more) unsung pitchers who excel. This year, Patrick certainly fits that bill, posting a 3.23 ERA over 11 outings, including 10 starts. A lack of swing-and-miss stuff kept Patrick off the prospect radar, but so far, he has made it work with command and a lot of soft contact. Patrick has already been traded twice in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland at the 2023 deadline for Jace Peterson, then moving from the A’s to Milwaukee after that season for Abraham Toro. This is what the Brewers do.
Biggest mover: While Wilson has emerged as a clear early-season front-runner for AL Rookie of the Year honors, no one has achieved that status in the NL. Baldwin has been dynamite but hasn’t played everyday. Casparius has been effective but not in the kind of role that typically attracts awards support. Chances are, this leaderboard will look a whole lot different a month from now. That stated, expect Baldwin to stay somewhere on it, as he’s been a real force at the plate when he has played. Increasingly lately, Baldwin has been usurping playing time behind the plate from veteran Sean Murphy.
Keep an eye on: Henderson has made only four starts, but what a beginning it’s been. Henderson won his first three outings and, overall, has allowed four runs over 21 innings with 29 strikeouts and six walks. He’s the first-ever Brewers pitcher to win each of his first three career appearances.
Manager of the Year
Front-runner: A.J. Hinch, Tigers (109.8 EARL)
Next four: 2. Stephen Vogt, Guardians (108.6); 3. Ron Washington, Los Angeles Angels (105.5); 4. Dan Wilson, Mariners (105.3); 5. Matt Quatraro, Royals (104.7)
Overview: The Tigers’ breakout might have begun late last season, but it has only accelerated in 2025 as Detroit has become the story in the American League. The Tigers’ over/under for wins at ESPN BET has gone from 83.5 at the start of the season to 95.5. That 12-win increase is four more than any other team. Hinch has never won Manager of the Year honors.
National League
Front-runner: Rob Thomson, Phillies (107.7)
Next four: 2. Oliver Marmol, St. Louis Cardinals (106.7); 3. Bob Melvin, Giants (104.9); 4. Craig Counsell, Cubs (104.3); 5. Dave Martinez, Nationals (104.2)
Overview: This is a tightly packed race, with Thomson emerging as a fairly surprising early leader. The Phillies were expected to contend, to be sure, but have outperformed their run differential by three wins to date and are a sparkling 10-4 in one-run games. This system likes those things. Marmol has been rising fast as the Cardinals surge into surprising contention. He, Counsell and Melvin are more conventional candidates than Thomson.
