While finishing in the top two would make life straightforward for Northern Ireland, they could still earn a play-off due to winning their Nations League group last year.
The top four Nations League winners who do not finish in the top two in their World Cup qualifying group will earn a play-off place.
O’Neill’s side are currently in second after two matches, but let’s talk the hypothetical worst-case scenario and Northern Ireland finish outside of the top two come the end of Group A in November.
In terms of ranking, Northern Ireland finished 12th out of the 14 group winners in the Nations League, which means they need eight of the 11 teams above them to qualify or have already booked a play-off spot.
You would expect Germany to finish in the top two despite their rocky start, but if they don’t then it’s a win-win as Northern Ireland would be the team most likely to finish ahead of them.
In the remaining groups, seven teams are in the top two with two rounds of matches remaining, and that would be enough for Northern Ireland to secure a play-off regardless of the final standings in Group A.
Spain, Portugal, France and England should be near certainties to qualify.
Erling Haaland’s Norway currently lead the way in Group I, while the Czech Republic are very well placed in Group L and are tied at the top with Croatia.
At least one of North Macedonia and Wales – who are in a similar but slightly less precarious position to Northern Ireland due to their higher Nations League ranking – should finish in the top two of Group J, and both finishing above Belgium would be a dream scenario for NI.
Sweden have made a slow start to Group B and are third behind Switzerland and Kosovo after two matches, while Romania are also outside the top two in Group H behind leaders Bosnia-Herzegovina and Austria in second.
