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In a world full of Chinese-made products, one remains rare: the commercial jet. This absence of China’s passenger jets, built by state-backed manufacturer Comac, from international markets is not likely to change anytime soon.
Last month, two brand new Boeing jets painted in Chinese airline livery were quietly returned to the US as Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on US exports made delivery prohibitively expensive for Chinese carriers. The tariffs have since been lowered, but the moment exposed a deeper vulnerability: China’s dependence on foreign jets has become a liability in a volatile geopolitical environment.
For years, China’s commercial jet ambitions have been dismissed because of limited export prospects and dependence on foreign technology. But that perspective overlooks a deeper shift under way. In an industry as concentrated and supply dependent as aviation, China does not need to dominate abroad to disrupt the global order.
That effort centres on the C919 — Comac’s answer to Boeing’s 737 and Airbus A320 — a narrow-body jet at the heart of China’s aviation ambitions. China’s three biggest state-owned airlines have each ordered 100 C919 jets and are already flying 17 of them since its first commercial flight in 2023. Comac has logged more than 1,000 orders, mostly domestic but including some from Brazil, Indonesia and Laos, signalling interest beyond China’s borders. While modest next to the 766 deliveries Airbus made last year, Comac’s goal of producing more than 200 jets annually by 2029 is starting to look achievable.
Unlike Boeing and Airbus, Comac enjoys the full weight of state backing. Beijing controls the country’s three largest airlines, which together account for nearly 43 per cent of domestic capacity, giving Comac a strong base of potential buyers. That advantage is amplified by the sheer size of China’s domestic air travel market, which is on track to overtake the US as the world’s largest by 2043, according to Airbus forecasts. Boeing estimates that meeting that demand will require more than 8,800 aircraft, accounting for one in every five commercial jets expected to be sold globally.
Its plans to raise C919 production capacity to 50 jets this year would give it about 6 per cent share of global single-aisle deliveries based on 2024 volumes. That would be a meaningful foothold for a relative newcomer and one with the potential to chip away at the market share and long-term earnings of Boeing and Airbus, particularly in China.
Yet for all its momentum, Comac still faces significant hurdles. The C919 relies heavily on imported components, with at least 40 per cent of the jet’s systems, including engines and avionics, estimated to be sourced from abroad, many from US companies. That leaves Comac exposed to export controls and rising geopolitical risk. As US-China relations continue to deteriorate, further restrictions on critical technologies cannot be ruled out. Comac also lacks international certifications from US and EU aviation authorities.
Even if Comac moves to replace foreign suppliers with local alternatives, doing so would trigger a lengthy and costly recertification process. The C919 obtained its certificate to fly in China in 2022, 15 years after its first development plan was approved. Any significant redesign would mean delays, just as demand at home continues to surge.
That demand is pressing. China’s immediate need for planes, particularly single-aisle models such as the A320, cannot wait for Comac’s production lines to scale up. That means for now, Europe’s Airbus, which has emerged as the primary beneficiary of strained US-China relations, is the clear winner. Its in-service fleet in mainland China now accounts for more than half of the market, a figure set to grow further as Boeing struggles with quality control issues.
In the long run, however, Beijing’s designation of aviation as a strategic industry, combined with sustained industrial policy, is laying the groundwork for a market tilted in Comac’s favour. It does not need to outperform Boeing or Airbus on a global scale. A dominant share of China’s local market alone would be enough to reshape the structure of commercial aviation.
The C919 may never reach the global scale of the 737 or the A320. But its existence marks a turning point towards a world where countries no longer trust their economic futures to foreign suppliers. The jetliner, once a symbol of globalisation, has become a barometer of its unravelling.
june.yoon@ft.com
