The 2025 NFL offseason featured plenty of quarterback movement via free agency and trades, but five moves stand out from the rest. Sam Darnold signed with the Seahawks, Justin Fields signed with the Jets, Daniel Jones signed with the Colts, Aaron Rodgers signed with the Steelers, and Geno Smith was traded to the Raiders. All five are currently starting for their new teams to mixed results.
How have these quarterbacks performed at their new destinations? We called on our NFL Nation reporters to evaluate both the positive and concerning signs from each passer so far. Then, national NFL reporter Dan Graziano sized up the likelihood that each quarterback will stick with his new 2025 team in 2026.
The five signal-callers are listed below alphabetically, starting with a player who has continued his redemption arc in a new city this season.
Jump to a quarterback:
Darnold | Fields | Jones
Rodgers | Smith
2025 stats: 11 passing touchdowns (tied for fifth), 1,541 passing yards (third), 78.5 QBR (third), 70.8% completion percentage (tied for sixth)
What has gone right this season: Darnold is a hair behind Daniel Jones and Dak Prescott for third in QBR, showing that his breakout season in Minnesota was neither a fluke nor solely a product of Kevin O’Connell’s coaching. He leads the NFL in both air yards per attempt (9.0) and yards per attempt (9.6), while owning the sixth-lowest sack rate (4.1%). That means he’s pushing the ball downfield with success and not holding on to it too long. Despite operating the league’s most run-heavy offense, Darnold is tied for fifth in passing touchdowns, and several of them have come on plays in which he’s escaped pressure and made accurate throws on the run. That’s proving to be perhaps his best skill.
What has gone wrong this season: Both of the Seahawks’ losses included a Darnold turnover in the final minute when they had the ball with a chance to win. In Week 1, he drove Seattle to the 49ers’ 9-yard line before right tackle Abraham Lucas got beaten badly by defensive end Nick Bosa for a game-ending strip sack. In Week 5, his hurried attempt at a throwaway bounced off a defender for an interception. Tampa Bay drove for a game-winning field goal, and Darnold said postgame he could have changed the protection to account for the free rusher.
Although each mistake had extenuating circumstances, quarterbacks are defined by their ability to deliver in the clutch. Darnold didn’t do it in those losses, but he did lead a game-winning drive in Week 4 against the Cardinals. — Brady Henderson
Likelihood of Darnold staying in 2026: 80%. Darnold has been everything the Seahawks could have hoped when they traded away Geno Smith and signed him in free agency. He’s scheduled to earn $27.5 million in 2026, but none of that money is guaranteed. And $17.5 million of it becomes guaranteed five days after the Super Bowl, so if the Seahawks are in the Super Bowl, they’ll have only five days to decide on Darnold. (Of course, if they’re in the Super Bowl, they’ve probably already decided to keep him by then.)
He could get an extension that tears up the final two years of his deal if he continues to play like this and the Seahawks continue to win. — Graziano
2025 stats: 4 passing touchdowns (tied for 28th), 799 passing yards (29th), 36.5 QBR (29th), 65.0% completion percentage (22nd)
What has gone right this season: Not much. If there’s a positive, it’s that Fields has brought a unique dimension to the position. He has already rushed for 235 yards, so he should easily break the team record for most rushing yards by a quarterback (Al Dorow had 453 in 1960). Fields has kept some plays alive with his open-field ability, including a brilliant 43-yard touchdown run against the Dolphins in Week 4. Actually, he could have much more yardage, but he’s not keeping the ball as much as he did early in the season.
What has gone wrong this season: Fields received a vote of confidence this week from coach Aaron Glenn, but he could be losing his grip on the starting job. He looked lost and reluctant to pull the trigger on Sunday against the Broncos. He held the ball too long and took nine sacks. He’s inconsistent as a pocket passer — the story of his career — with his lowest QBR since his rookie season (31.4).
The Jets gave Fields a two-year, $40 million deal — essentially, a one-year audition to see if he’s the long-term answer. So far, he has provided no evidence he can be that guy. — Rich Cimini
Likelihood of Fields staying in 2026: 25%. Fields has had a couple of good games, a couple of disastrously bad games and missed one game due to a concussion. If the Jets cut him after this season, they’d still owe him $10 million in guaranteed 2026 salary and would have paid him $30 million for one (presumably disappointing) season.
The Jets are 0-6, which means they’re almost certainly not a playoff team and could have a very high draft pick. There’s time for Fields to turn things around in terms of his individual play and convince the Jets he’s their future at the position. He’s only 26 years old, after all. But the Jets can get out of the contract with minimal pain if this season continues to be as rough as it has been so far. — Graziano
2025 stats: 8 passing touchdowns (tied for 17th), 1,502 passing yards (seventh), 79.7 QBR (first), 71.7% completion percentage (third)
What has gone right this season: Just about everything. Jones certainly expected an upgrade in his supporting cast in Indianapolis compared with New York, but who could have predicted he’d be leading the NFL in QBR and see his yards per attempt jump from his career mark of 6.6 to 8.3 this season? If you’re looking for explanations, you can start with coach Shane Steichen’s masterful game plans and Jones’ league-low 2.7% sack rate (his career rate is 8.1%).
What has gone wrong this season: This is a bit of a nitpick, but Jones does have to be mindful of his ball protection after recent games. He went three games into the season without a turnover, but he has had three interceptions in the past three games, including an ugly one in last Sunday’s win over the Cardinals. Jones also committed two fumbles in that three-game stretch, though the Colts recovered both. Efficiency and turnover margin have factored into their offensive success, so they need that to remain part of the winning recipe. — Stephen Holder
Likelihood of Jones staying in 2026: 80%. Jones has played very well, and the Colts are 5-1, which has led to some chatter about a possible contract extension. Jones is on a one-year, $14 million contract that could get over $18 million if he hits all of his incentives, and then is eligible for free agency at year’s end. The Colts still have 2023 first-rounder Anthony Richardson Sr., but if they keep winning with Jones, a new contract or a franchise tag are strong possibilities for 2026. — Graziano
2025 stats: 10 passing touchdowns (tied for ninth), 1,021 passing yards (25th), 49.0 QBR (23rd), 68.8% completion percentage (11th)
What has gone right this season: More than has gone wrong, that’s for sure. The early returns of the Rodgers experiment are positive since he signed a one-year deal with the Steelers in June. That’s because Rodgers is playing smart football within the offense and integrating seamlessly in the organizational culture. Defensive captain Cameron Heyward said this year’s team has been closer from top to bottom, and he said Rodgers has been a big part of that.
What has gone wrong this season: The biggest knock on the Rodgers-led offense is the lack of deep passes. Rodgers is last in air yards per attempt (5.3), but the Steelers’ playmakers lead the lead in average yards after the catch per reception (7.3). The Steelers have 15 receptions of at least 20 yards, but they have just two passes of 20 air yards or more. — Brooke Pryor
Likelihood of Rodgers staying in 2026: 5%. It’s this low because Rodgers has basically said this will be his final year. It’s this high because people sometimes change their minds or don’t really mean the things they say. Everything is going quite well for Rodgers in Pittsburgh, where he’s playing on a one-year, $14.15 million deal. But he does turn 42 years old in December, and it would stand to reason that he’d at least be considering retirement, even if he might eventually change his mind. — Graziano
1:09
McAfee: This is the best Aaron Rodgers has looked in years
Pat McAfee is very impressed by what he has seen from Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers offense this season.
2025 stats: 7 passing touchdowns (tied for 21st), 1,350 passing yards (11th), 37.8 QBR (28th), 66.1% completion percentage (20th)
What has gone right this season: There are not a lot of positives from Smith’s performance on the field. However, the Raiders’ Week 6 win over the Titans might have provided a blueprint for getting him back on track. It wasn’t a pretty showing, but the offense struck a balance between the run and pass game. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 75 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries, and Smith leaned heavily on the short and intermediate passing game. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 174 yards, with a touchdown pass and an interception. Putting Smith in a position where he doesn’t have to win games with his arm is the best path forward for him and the Raiders.
What has gone wrong this season: Turnovers, simply put. Smith has thrown 10 interceptions through six games. The last NFL QB to throw at least 10 INTs in the first six games of a season was Kirk Cousins with the Vikings in 2020. Smith threw an interception for the third straight game Sunday. “I told coach [Pete Carroll] I need to go jump in the lake, or ocean or something,” Smith said postgame. “It’s just a lot of bad-luck stuff happening to me, but I’m in control of that.” — Ryan McFadden
Likelihood of Smith staying in 2026: 50%. At this time, $18.5 million of Smith’s $26.5 million 2026 salary is guaranteed. The remainder becomes guaranteed in March of next year. So, if the Raiders want to move on and eat the $18.5 million (and not have to eat all $26.5 million), they’d have to decide by the time the league year starts. Smith has played poorly and just turned 35, so it’s not out of the question the Raiders could go in a different direction if things don’t turn around. — Graziano
