Oil prices fall sharply after Trump claims war will be over ‘very soon’
Callum Jones
Oil prices have tumbled back from the four-year highs they hit on Monday after Donald Trump suggested the US-Israel war on Iran could end “very soon”.
It has been an extraordinary 24 hours in global markets.
This time yesterday, Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged beyond $100 per barrel for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – triggering stark sell-offs across leading Asian and European stock indices. Wall Street also started the day under pressure in New York.
Then Trump, who pays close attention to market movements, started talking. The war on Iran as “very complete, pretty much”, the US president claimed in an interview with CBS News.
Brent crude, which climbed as high as $119.50 per barrel on Monday, fell back sharply to settle at $98.96. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 clawed out of the red to finish the day higher.
Key events
US vice-president JD Vance and defense secretary Pete Hegseth have attended the dignified transfer ceremony for the seventh soldier killed in the Middle East war.
US army sergeant Benjamin Pennington, 26, died on Sunday from injuries sustained in a 1 March strike on Prince Sultan air base in Saudi Arabia.
Vance declined to answer questions from the media at the ceremony on Monday. He was also joined by Gen Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, at Dover Air Force Base in the state of Delaware, Agence France-Presse is reporting.
During the ceremony, uniformed soldiers silently carried a flag-draped coffin from a C-17 aircraft to a transfer vehicle while Vance, Hegseth and Caine saluted.
Six other fallen soldiers – five men and one woman – have been returned to US soil.
Andrew Roth
At one of the most consequential moments of his two terms in office, wartime president Donald Trump on Monday delivered a vague and contradictory forecast for how long the United States will continue to fight in Iran and what the ultimate goal of the US military campaign there will be.
With oil hovering above $100 a barrel for much of Monday and Middle Eastern allies fearing a further tumble into regional conflict, Trump appeared in Doral, Florida, with the mission of calming global markets and reassuring skittish allies that he has a clear vision for how to end the largest US intervention in the Middle East since the Iraq war.
If there is one, it was not delivered in this press conference.
In a 35-minute appearance, the US president eschewed the specifics to hammer home how thoroughly the US has destroyed Iran’s military and to bolster suspicions that there has been little planning for what comes next. After floating remarks that the war was “very complete, pretty much” to a CBS News reporter in a phone call, he then evaded a reporter’s question about whether that meant the war could wrap up this week. “No but soon. I think soon. Very soon.”
Reporters tried again. “You said the war is ‘very complete’. But your defense secretary says ‘this is just the beginning.’ So which is it?”
“I think you could say both,” Trump replied. Straight away he added: “It’s the beginning of building a new country”. Never mind that Trump and his top advisers had ruled out managing an effort at nation-building in Iran; hours have passed and indeed Trump’s own vision for Iran seems to change with every telephone call he has taken from a reporter in the last 10 days.
You can read the full piece here:
Jack Snape
Australia’s responsibilities for the welfare of the Iran women’s football team are not over, as advocates expect more players to seek asylum amid a frantic but “delicate” effort to inform the entire squad of their rights.
Five of the players, led by captain Zahra Ghanbari, were formally granted protection in Australia by the government early on Tuesday. The group has already been given an offer to train with an Australian A-League women’s club.
The other team members remain in their hotel on Australia’s Gold Coast as advocates work to link the players with lawyers who can assist them in understanding their options and protection available in Australia.
Those connected to the group expect more – including possibly some staff – to make the decision to stay in Australia. But the group is still under surveillance by the minders around the team.
Home affairs minister Tony Burke said the group given protection broke out in a spontaneous chant of “Aussie, Aussie, Aussie, oi, oi, oi” to celebrate receiving their Australian papers.
Trump suggests school strike carried out by Iran or ‘somebody else’
Lauren Gambino
Donald Trump has been asked whether the US would accept responsibility for a strike that hit an Iranian elementary school, killing scores of people, many of them children, after video evidence showed a US Tomahawk struck the naval base next to it.
In response, the president suggested, without evidence, that the bombing had been carried out by Iran or “somebody else”.
“It’s something that I was told is under investigation, but Tomahawks are used by others,” Trump said. “As you know, numerous other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us.”
A video released by the Iranian news agency Mehr and geolocated to the site by the investigative collective Bellingcat, combined with other evidence from the site, indicate that the elementary school in Minab was hit during a set of strikes by the US, as it targeted an adjacent Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) naval compound.
Munitions experts have told the Guardian that the missile shown in the video is clearly a Tomahawk, which is only used by the US in the current conflict.
Pressed by a reporter on why he had suggested Iran was responsible – a claim no one else in his administration had made – Trump replied: “Because I just don’t know enough about it.”
The strike demolished approximately half the school, killing dozens of seven- to 12-year-old girls as they attended morning classes.
Trump on Monday said he was “willing to live” with “whatever” the investigation concludes.
Donald Trump has suggested the US may lift oil sanctions against “some countries” to ease prices as the economic toll of the US-Israeli war on Iran deepens.
The US treasury has already issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to purchase Russian oil from tankers stranded at sea, Lauren Gambino reports.
The US president also said on Monday that the conflict could be over “very soon” while threatening even more aggressive action if Tehran moved to cut off global energy supplies, as mentioned earlier.
Trump said the US would not let Iran “hold the world hostage” over oil, telling reporters:
We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them, or anybody else helping them, to ever recover that section of the world if they do anything.
During appearances in Florida, Trump also said the US had taken a “little excursion” to the Middle East “to get rid of some evil” but suggested the war – now in its second week – was ahead of schedule and near completion.
There’s more in the full report here:
Egypt raised prices on a wide range of fuel products on Tuesday, the petroleum ministry has been reported as saying.
It cited “exceptional conditions in global energy markets” linked to developments in the Middle East.
Iran threatens to block regional oil exports
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards has said Tehran will not allow “one litre of oil” to be exported from the region if US-Israeli attacks continue.
Donald Trump then threatened to hit the Islamic republic far harder if it blocked oil flows through the vital strait of Hormuz, where shipping has already been severely disrupted by the war.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said in a statement carried by state media that it would “determine the end of the war”, after the US president earlier said the conflict would end “soon”.
The Guards’ statement was quoted as saying:
The equations and future status of the region are now in the hands of our armed forces; American forces will not end the war.
In an apparent response, Trump posted on his Truth Social platform:
If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America TWENTY TIMES HARDER than they have been hit thus far. Additionally, we will take out easily destroyable targets that will make it virtually impossible for Iran to ever be built back, as a Nation, again — Death, Fire, and Fury will reign upon them — But I hope, and pray, that it does not happen!
Israel says it hit Iranian launcher after missile barrage
Israel struck an Iranian missile launcher shortly after a barrage fired from the Islamic republic triggered air raid warnings in several Israeli areas, Israel said on Tuesday.
Late on Monday the Israeli military said it identified a round of Iranian missile fire and was working “to intercept the threat”.
The Iranian launches sparked air raid warnings in several parts of Israel, forcing people to head for shelter.
But the Magen David Adom emergency services said it received no reports of casualties after the latest round of Iranian fire.
Agence France-Presse also reports the Israeli military then said it “had struck the missile launcher that launched missiles toward the state of Israel a short while ago”.
Before the latest Iranian attack, Israel had announced what it called a “broad wave” of strikes on Tehran, the second such assault launched on Monday.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard is saying security in the region will be for everyone or for no one, state media is reportedly quoting a spokesperson for the elite force as saying.
We’ll have more on this soon.
Iranian politicians and institutions have issued pledges of loyalty to new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei, whose father, wife, son and mother died at the start of the US-Israeli air onslaught, according to Iranian state media.
“We will obey the commander-in-chief until the last drop of our blood,” a defence council statement said.
But Reuters is reporting that Iranians reached by phone were divided over his appointment, with supporters of the authorities hailing the choice as a declaration of defiance and opponents fearful it would dash their hopes for change.
Many Iranians had initially celebrated the death of Khamenei’s father and supreme leader Ali Khamenei, weeks after his security forces killed thousands of anti-government protesters. But there has since been little sign of anti-government activity, with activists fearful of taking to the streets while Iran is under attack.
“The [Revolutionary] Guards and the system are still powerful,” said Babak, 34, a businessperson in the central city of Arak who asked to keep his family name confidential.
They have tens of thousands of forces ready to fight to keep this regime in place. We, the people, have nothing.
Deepa Parent
As the Israeli military announced it had launched a broad wave of attacks in Tehran, two residents told the Guardian that they had been under heavy bombardment and heard back-to-back explosions in the past half hour.
One Tehran resident in the east of the capital said they had lost electricity and there was a loud sound followed by “several explosions, one after another”.
“The place they hit has caught fire,” she said, adding that there were several jets in the air.
They’re destroying Iran.
Australia to deploy aircraft and missiles to Gulf
Krishani Dhanji
The Australian government has said it will deploy a military surveillance plane to the Gulf as 12 countries in the region face attacks from Iran.
The government confirmed the deployment of the E-7A Wedgetail was at the request of the United Arab Emirates and said it would also provide advanced medium range air-to-air missiles to the UAE.
The Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese, said the deployment would be in a defensive, not an offensive, capacity.
We’re taking defensive action to support our partners efforts to keep Australians safe. Deployed ADF [Australian defence force] assets will operate according to the right of collective self-defence.
Albanese said the UAE alone had already been forced to shoot down more than 1,500 drones and rockets.
