By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider cryptocurrency market recovered from overnight lows, with monero (XMR), XRP and SUI leading the bounce ahead of the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show a slowdown in hiring in May.
“In the short term, weak data may support BTC to continue the rebound. The market is concerned about Friday’s non-farm payrolls report, if it again shows that the labor market cooling, will strengthen the year rate cut expectations,” analysts at Bitunix said in an email.
Other analysts expressed concerns about the public spat between President Donald Trump and his one-time ally and billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk over tax reforms and their impact on fiscal deficit.
“A public clash between Elon Musk and Donald Trump shook investor confidence, highlighting fractures within political and business leadership,” said Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN. “Traditional markets held relatively steady (−0.5%), but crypto saw a sharp reaction, with $830M in liquidations as leveraged traders got wiped out.”
Fournier suggested maintaining a cautious, low-exposure stance, expecting sideways or further downside action over the weekend. “Any near-term rebound will need a fundamental catalyst to be sustained,” he noted.
More buoyantly, USDC issuer Circle’s shares surged 168% on their first day of NYSE trading to close at $83.23 from the IPO price of $31, lifting the market cap to $18.5 billion. The stock saw a trading volume of over 47.8 million shares, according to the exchange. The debut, however, revived memories of Coinbase’s listing in April 2021, which marked an interim bitcoin market top.
The number of large open interest holders of CME bitcoin futures reached an all-time high of 217 as of the end of May, signaling increased institutional participation. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said that the company is in the “study phase” of potentially using stablecoins as a payment method.
In traditional markets, the U.S. Treasury called on the Bank of Japan to hike rates to stall the weakness in the yen, a currency that’s seen as a haven from risk. Stay alert!
What to Watch
- Crypto
- June 6: Sia (SC) is set to activate Phase 1 of its V2 hard fork, the largest upgrade in the project’s history. Phase 2 is scheduled for activation on July 6.
- June 9, 1-5 p.m.: U.S. SEC Crypto Task Force roundtable on “DeFi and the American Spirit”
- June 10, 10 a.m.: U.S. House Final Services Committee hearing for Markup of Various Measures, including the crypto market structure bill, i.e. the Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act.
- June 11, 7 a.m.: Stratis (STRAX) activates mainnet hard fork at block 2,587,200 to enable the Masternode Staking protocol.
- June 16: 21Shares executes a 3-for-1 share split for ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB); ticker and NAV remain unchanged.
- June 16: Brazil’s B3 exchange launches USD-settled ether (0.25 ETH) and solana (5 SOL) futures contracts, approved by Brazil’s securities regulator, the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) and benchmarked to Nasdaq indices.
- Macro
- June 6, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May employment data.
- Unemployment Rate Est. 7% vs. Prev. 6.9%
- Employment Change Est. -15K vs. Prev. 7.4K
- June 6, 8:30 a.m.: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases May employment data.
- Non Farm Payrolls Est. 130K vs. Prev. 177K
- Unemployment Rate Est. 4.2% vs. Prev. 4.2%
- Government Payrolls Prev. 10K
- Manufacturing Payrolls Est. -1K vs. Prev. -1K
- June 8, 9:30 p.m.: The National Bureau of Statistics of China releases May consumer and producer price inflation data.
- Inflation Rate MoM Prev. 0.1%
- Inflation Rate YoY Prev. -0.1%
- PPI YoY Prev. -2.7%
- June 6, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases May employment data.
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
- Governance votes & calls
- Unlocks
- June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $52.25 million.
- June 13: Immutable (IMX) to unlock 1.33% of its circulating supply worth $12.39 million.
- June 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 3.79% of its circulating supply worth $16.34 million.
- June 15: Sei (SEI) to unlock 1.04% of its circulating supply worth $10.31 million.
- June 16: Arbitrum (ARB) to unlock 1.91% of its circulating supply worth $31.01 million.
- June 17: ZKsync (ZK) to unlock 20.91% of its circulating supply worth $40.78 million.
- June 17: ApeCoin (APE) to unlock 1.95% of its circulating supply worth $11.53 million.
- Token Launches
- June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends
- June 26: Coinbase to delist Helium Mobile (MOBILE), Render (RNDR), Ribbon Finance (RBN) and Synapse (SYN).
Conferences
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight.
Token Talk
By Shaurya Malwa
- Yuga Labs CEO Greg Solano proposed dissolving the ApeCoin DAO and transferring its assets to a new entity to be called ApeCo.
- Solano criticized the DAO for inefficiency, saying the proposal aims to streamline operations to focus on high-impact projects.
- A formal vote is required to approve the transition, which would end the current NFT-focused governance structure.
- Elsewere, Fartcoin jumped 12% as Coinbase added the token to its its listing roadmap, signaling potential future trading on the crypto exchange.
- Trading volume hitting a record $400 million, pushing FARTCOIN into the top-100 by market capitalization and one of the few tokens in the green in an otherwise red market.
- Fartcoin, known for its humorous origins and cult following, allows users to earn tokens by submitting themed memes or jokes.
Derivatives Positioning
- Perpetual funding rates for bitcoin have flipped to marginally negative, indicating a bias for shorts. Ether funding rates remain mildly positive.
- HYPE, AAVE, BCH, SOL and DOGE have seen an increase in open interest.
- On Deribit, near-term uncertainty is reflected in skew, with puts costlier than calls through the 13th June expiry.
- Subsequent expiries show demand for calls.
- Block flows on the OTC network Paradigm featured long positions in June puts and demand for strangles, or volatility bullish strategies.
Market Movements
- BTC is up 3.14% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $103,738.42 (24hrs: -0.79%)
- ETH is unchanged at $2,607.45 (24hrs: -1.02%)
- CoinDesk 20 is unchanged at 3,086.55 (24hrs: +0.81%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 3.06%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0044% (-4.8279% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is up 0.22% at 98.96
- Gold futures are up 0.12% at $3,379.10
- Silver futures are up 1.21% at $36.24
- Nikkei 225 closed up 0.5% at 37,741.61
- Hang Seng closed down 0.48% at 23,792.54
- FTSE is up 0.13% at 8,822.93
- Euro Stoxx 50 is unchanged at 5,409.99
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.25% at 42,319.74
- S&P 500 closed down 0.53% at 5,939.30
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.83% at 19,298.45
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.05% at 26,342.29
- S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.58% at 2,575.32
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.4%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.46% at 5,973.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.49% at 21,687.00
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index are up 0.37% at 42,526.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 64.64 (0.13%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.02385 (0.25%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 883 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $51.89
- Total Fees: 4.87 BTC / $505,169
- CME Futures Open Interest: 145,460 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 30.6 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.68%
Technical Analysis
- XRP’s BTC-denominated price is falling and the descent has taken the shape of a falling wedge pattern, characterized by two converging trendlines connecting highs and low.
- The convergence indicates that the selling pressure is slowly weakening.
- A breakout from the wedge would confirm a bull reversal higher and renewed XRP outperformance relative to bitcoin.
Crypto Equities
Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $368.79 (-2.46%), +1.67% at $374.94 in pre-market
Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $244.2 (-4.61%), +2.04% at $249.19
Circle (CRCL): closed at $83.23 (+168.48%), +15.22% at $95.11
Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$26.12 (-4.98%)
MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.88 (-5.04%), +1.75% at $15.14
Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.99 (-5.37%), +2.45% at $9.21
Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $11.93 (-5.02%), unchanged in pre-market
CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.02 (-5.35%), +2.0% at $9.20
CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.2 (-5.16%)
Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $32.64 (-8.72%), +2.02% at $33.30
Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $26.13 (-2.97%), unchanged in pre-market
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$278.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $44.27 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.20 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: $11.3 million
- Cumulative net flows: $3.32 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.76 million
Source: Farside Investors
Overnight Flows
Chart of the Day
- Open interest in ETH futures listed on the CME has pulled back to 1.04 millon ETH from 1.17 millon on May 27.
- The decline indicates that the institutional momentum behind ether has weakened.
While You Were Sleeping
In the Ether
