Dutch centrists come roaring back but far right remains strong

Welcome back. “When all positive forces unite, we will put an end to the Wilders era.” That message of optimism and openness to compromise propelled Rob Jetten and his liberal D66 party to a stunning result in the Dutch parliamentary elections this week. D66 tripled its number of seats to 26, putting it on a par with the far-right Freedom party (PVV) led by the anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders. 

Whoever eventually comes out on top — the final result may not become clear until next week — the Netherlands is heading for a more centrist pro-EU government after its failed experiment with a radical right-conservative administration following Wilders’ election triumph in 2023. But it is far too early to write off Wilders, and it would be wrong to interpret this week’s results as a swing against the far-right as a whole. Tell me what you think at ben.hall@ft.com.

Punishment beating

The political centre emerges stronger from Wednesday’s vote, not just with D66’s strong showing but also the remarkable recovery of the Christian Democrats. Dutch voters meanwhile punished the four parties in the outgoing coalition, which was consumed by infighting and achieved nothing of note before Wilders brought it down in June. All four lost seats — the PVV one-third of its 2023 tally, while the New Social Contract, an upstart Christian Democrat formation that won 20 seats last time, was wiped out.

Wilders appears to have paid a price for his obstructive antics. Blocked by his coalition partners from becoming prime minister, he undermined an alliance he had nonetheless helped to form. He brought it down because it was too soft on immigration, even though his party controlled the ministry of asylum and migration and failed to advance any policies of its own.

The PVV lost votes to the liberal conservative VVD but also to other radical right parties, such as the openly pro-Russian Forum for Democracy, which gained four seats, and its offshoot JA21, which gained eight. JA21 shares many of Wilders’ nativist, anti-immigration positions but presents itself as more willing to work with mainstream parties. 

For Sarah de Lange, professor of Dutch politics at Leiden University, “the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.”

Léonie de Jonge, a specialist on the far right at the University of Tübingen, writes: “Make no mistake — the far right remains strong. Support hasn’t disappeared; it’s shifted across parties. The Dutch political landscape is more fragmented than ever — and the far right is no exception.”

Extreme fragmentation

The party fragmentation that has become a feature in much of Europe is particularly extreme in the Netherlands thanks to its highly proportional voting system and low threshold for entering parliament. Wednesday’s election has accentuated the trend. Never since the number of seats in the Tweede Kamer, or lower house, were increased to 150 in the 1950s have the top two parties won so few or have so many parties won representation with fewer than five. It means four parties will again be needed to form a majority, making it harder to satisfy each one. It could take several months to form.

If the Freedom party is confirmed the winner by number of votes once the final tally, including overseas ballots, is in next week, Wilders will claim the right to have the first go at forming a government. But as the other mainstream parties have ruled out working with him, the baton will sooner or later pass to Jetten.

Jetten’s best option would be a four-way tie-up of mainstream parties: D66, the Christian Democrats, the VVD and Green-Labour. It would have a majority in the lower house and senate. But Dilan Yeşilgöz, the VVD leader, has refused to work with the left. She wants a coalition with the radical right JA21 instead. That, though, would fall just shy of a majority and be ideologically unpalatable for Jetten. The weakening of Green-Labour, which lost seats, and the resignation of its leader Frans Timmermans gives Jetten a chance to change Yeşilgöz’s mind — but we can expect some difficult and lengthy negotiations ahead.

A mainstream coalition would be more stable and effective than the outgoing one. Jetten, a former energy minister, struck a chord with voters with his positive message of compromise and problem-solving. It would also be good news for the EU. Jetten campaigned openly on a pro-EU platform. He wanted his country to say yes to European initiatives and not always no, he told Politico this week. A more constructive partner in The Hague could be crucial for the EU with difficult decisions ahead on the budget, enlargement, further integration and long-term support for Ukraine.

Shouting from the sidelines

Wilders, meanwhile, will return to opposition, where he seems most comfortable. After his election victory in 2023, the far-right leader wanted power but had no idea how to govern, Koen Vossen, a historian and author, wrote in The Guardian after the government collapsed in June.

The PVV is a one-man vehicle, has no other members than Wilders and has done little to invest in campaign machinery, policy development or personnel. 

“It seems that Wilders, the solitary ideologue, is really more interested in opposition, where the burdens of responsibility are far lighter,” Vossen wrote.

Even before his party won the 2023 election, Wilders has left a deep mark on Dutch politics by pulling his rivals on to his own preferred battleground of immigration. Even D66 has toughened up its stance and wants to outsource processing of asylum seekers to third countries.

When his party was in coalition government, Wilders had a brief taste of compromise and constraint — and he didn’t like it. As the FT’s Simon Kuper wrote before the election: “He’ll return to dominating the debate. By shouting at the Dutch system, Wilders moves it rightwards.”

More on this topic

The Power of Populism: Geert Wilders and the Party for Freedom in the Netherlands by Koen Vossen

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