Key events
Centrist Warsaw mayor narrowly ahead in Polish presidential race – first news report
Jakub Krupa in Warsaw and Ashifa Kassam
The pro-European centrist Rafał Trzaskowski and historian Karol Nawrocki, backed by the populist right, have each secured about 30% of the vote in a nail-bitingly close first round of Poland’s presidential election.
The vote sets the stage for a runoff round on 1 June that will force voters to choose between starkly different visions of the country’s future.
An exit poll by the Ipsos institute, released as voting closed on Sunday, suggested Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw and candidate from the prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, had claimed 30.8% of the vote in the first round. Trailing him was Nawrocki, who has been endorsed by the Law and Justice party (PiS), with 29.1% of the vote.
The exit poll, however, points to a first-round result that was closer than anticipated between the frontrunners, yielding a result that is likely to make Trzaskowski and Tusk nervous.
The outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, is a close ally of the previous PiS government and a supporter of Donald Trump. He opposed the changes pursued by the new Tusk-led administration and blocked some decisions, including ambassadorial nominations.
A potential opposition win would extend the current deadlock, prompting years of political instability.
Dan ‘appears to have unassailable lead’ over Simion in Romania – snap analysis
Jon Henley
With almost 98% of votes counted, the centrist independent mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, appears to have an unassailable lead in Romania’s presidential election with 54.25% of the vote against the 45.75% of his far-right rival, George Simion.
More precisely, Dan has a lead of about 830,000 votes – and growing.
Although only 65% of votes in the diaspora have been counted and Simion leads there by about 55% to 45%, that gap seems, if anything, to be widening. It looks impossible for Simion to come back from here.
However, the ultranationalist has yet to concede, and has indeed claimed victory.
“We are the clear winners of these elections,” he said. “We claim victory in the name of the Romanian people.” Simion claimed he was actually 400,000 votes ahead of Dan.
Simion promised a parallel count by his AUR party activists would “ensure the identification of any potential fraud”, although he acknowledged he had not so far seen any. It is unclear what steps he could take to contest the results.
Sergiu Misciou, a political scientist at Babes-Bolyai University, told Reuters some protests by Simion supporters could not be ruled out in the coming days, but added that if the results were several percentage points apart, “it is hard to believe we would be able to challenge them”.
Exit polls show radical right overperforming in Poland, but ‘electorates are not Lego blocks’ – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
I have asked Dr Ben Stanley, a political scientist at SWPS University in Warsaw, for his first thoughts on the Polish exit polls (21:02).
Here is his take:
“If the exit polls reflect the outcome, then the radical right candidates will have overperformed relative to their pre-election polling (21:07), while the centrist and left-wing candidates will have underperformed.
But with this many candidates and 2 pp. margins of error, there is still scope for the picture to change either way.
It’s also worth noting that candidate electorates are not Lego blocks – those who are stacking them to project second round results are overlooking substantial heterogeneity.
Mentzen’s supporters, for example, cannot be counted upon to swing fully behind Nawrocki, nor can Trzaskowski simply expect to inherit the votes of the left.”
Rival marches planned week before second round in Poland
Jakub Krupa
If you were considering taking a relaxed city break in Warsaw next Sunday, 25 May, you may want to think again.
Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO) party has long advertised plans for a massive campaign march to be held in the capital on that day in a bid to mobilise centrist, liberal and left-wing voters for Rafał Trzaskowski ahead of the second round.
But in his speech after the exit polls were published, radical-right opposition candidate Karol Nawrocki announced he would lead a rival march of conservatives, too.
Centre-right party wins, but falls short of majority in Portugal with record far-right gains – first news report
Sam Jones
Here is Sam Jones’s first take on the events of the night so far:
The centre-right Democratic Alliance (AD), led by Portugal’s caretaker prime minister, Luís Montenegro, looks set to win the country’s third snap election in three years but to again fall well short of a majority, while the far-right Chega party could take a record 20% of the vote.
Three polls, published at 8pm local time by the three main television channels – SIC, RTP and TVI – put the AD on between 29% and 35.1%, with the Socialist party (PS) and Chega vying for second place on 19.4% to 26% and 19.5% to 25.5%, respectively.
If accurate, the polls point to a similar AD showing to the previous general election in March 2024, when the alliance won 28.8% of the vote.
But the surveys show a far closer race between the PS and a seemingly resurgent Chega. Last time, the socialists won 28% of the vote, while Chega took 18.1% – dramatically up from the 7.2% it won in the 2022 election.
Bucharest mayor Dan on course to win Romanian presidency – first news report
Jon Henley
Here is Jon Henley’s first story on the Romanian vote:
The centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicuşor Dan, is on track to win Romania’s pivotal presidential election with 85% of votes counted, according to official figures showing the pro-European independent six points clear of his far-right rival, George Simion.
The figures from Romania’s central election authority showed Dan, who had cast the second round vote as a battle between “a pro-western and an anti-western Romania”, on 53.2%, while George Simion, a self-described Trump admirer, had 46.8%.
The capital’s two-term mayor, who made his name fighting corrupt property developers, said voters seeking “profound change, functioning state institutions, less corruption, a prosperous economy and a society of dialogue, not hate, have won”.
Simion, however, disputed the polls. He said: “We are the clear winners of these elections. We claim victory in the name of the Romanian people.” Simion promised a parallel vote count would “ensure the identification of any potential fraud”.
Analysts have described the elections as the most important in the country’s post-communist history, with significant implications for the country’s strategic orientation and economic prospects as well as for European Union unity.
Far-right Chega spinning Portugal result as ‘death of longstanding bipartisan system’
Sam Jones
The votes in Portugal are still being counted, but far-right Chega is already spinning the election as proof of the death of Portugal’s longstanding bipartisan system.
“We still don’t know if we will come in second or third place. What we do know is that the system is already shaking,” said the Chega MP Pedro Pinto.
He added: “Chega has definitively broken the bipartisan system in Portugal and represents the great alternative for government in Portugal. This is a day that will mark history.”
Dan ahead in Romania with 95% polling stations counted
Let’s take a quick look at Romania again.
With 94.6% polling stations counted, Nicusor Dan is well ahead at 54.15%, and George Simion at 45.85% – so pretty close to the exit polls.
These partial results include 36.6% of overseas polling stations, where it’s Simion who is ahead, 55 to 45%.
‘Stakes are huge,’ former Polish president Kwaśniewski warns after close exit poll
And here is a snap reaction from former Polish president Aleksander Kwaśniewski – it was during his term 1995 to 2005 that Poland joined Nato and the EU – speaking on TVP Info.
“The stakes are huge.
We are fighting for Poland to be on the side of European democracies, [otherwise] it’d be on the side of European troublemakers, those who want to go down the [Hungarian PM Viktor] Orbán or [Slovak PM Robert] Fico route.”
He offers his public backing for Trzaskowski in the second round.
‘Next two weeks will decide future’ of Poland, PM Tusk says
Polish prime minister Donald Tusk just reacted to Polish exit polls, stressing the importance of the second round vote as he said “everything is at stake now” and “the next two weeks will decide the future” of Poland.
“Not one step back!,” he said.
‘Really big result’ for far-right Chega in Portugal
Sam Jones
On Portugal: it will be a really big result for Chega if they really come above 20% in the final results – up from 18% at the last vote.
If the polls are right, then Chega’s rise continue – albeit not as dramatically as in the last two elections.
After taking 1.3% of the vote and picking up its first seat in the national assembly in the 2019 election, it won 7.2% of the vote in 2022, securing 12 seats. At the last general election in March last year, the party won 18% of the vote and took 50 seats.
Like Vox, its ideological bedfellows over the border in Spain, Portugal’s Chega party has, in recent years, thoroughly detonated the longstanding myth that the neighbouring countries’ 20th-century histories of dictatorship had inoculated them against far-right politics.
After massive breakthroughs over the past few years, both are now the third biggest parties in their national parliaments. Chega could even be the second biggest, according to one of the exit polls.
Chega has managed to capitalise on widespread dissatisfaction with Portugal’s mainstream left and right parties as the country continues to suffer a housing crisis, stressed health and education systems, and low wages.
As the political scientist André Azevedo Alves told me last time round, Chega’s leader, André Ventura, has proved thoroughly adept at leveraging political disenchantment and fears over corruption.
“It’s Ventura sensing that there is a political opportunity because of this widespread discontent with the political class, left and right,” he said. “I think that’s one of the main things that Chega feeds on.”
But judging by previous comments from other leaders, Chega appears to be no closer to entering government – largely due to the steadfast and enduring refusal of the AD leader, Luís Montenegro, to even contemplate any such deal.
The centre-right PM said no last year, and he is still saying no.
According to Montenegro: “Governing with Chega is impossible for three reasons: it isn’t reliable in its thinking; it behaves like a political weathervane, always changing its mind, and it’s not suited to the exercise of government.”
The small Liberal Initiative party – which could throw its weight behind Montenegro, bringing his coalition a handful of seats but leaving him well short of a majority in the country’s 230-seat assembly – has also categorically refused to do anything that would help Chega into power.
Recent months have also somewhat tarnished the Chega brand, showing that it, too, is susceptible to the kind of corruption and sleaze scandals it has been fond of railing against.
In January, Chega expelled one of its MPs from the party after he was accused of stealing suitcases at several airports. Another member of the party was caught drunk-driving the same month, while a third has been charged with paying for oral sex with an underage male who was 15 at the time.
Meanwhile, the party has returned to its trademark attacks on Portugal’s Roma community, prompting angry protests at some of its events. Speaking earlier this week, Ventura – who has previously accused the country’s Roma population of having “a chronic problem of dependence on benefits, delinquency and violence” – said he would stand up to “threats” from the Roma people.
Reactions show early battle lines for Polish run-off – snap analysis
Jakub Krupa
Watching speeches by Trzaskowski and Nawrocki, you can clearly see the battle lines for the second round in Poland already emerging tonight.
Trzaskowski has made an early pitch to left-wing voters as he made a pledge to liberalise abortion laws and push the government to get on with its reforms.
He also portrays Nawrocki as a “radical” candidate, warning voters that he is “no Andrzej Duda”, the current conservative incumbent, but that he is much further to the right.
Meanwhile, Nawrocki makes it clear that he needs to win to stop prime minister Donald Tusk from getting “all the power” as he makes an appeal to right- and far-right voters to back him in the second round to “save Poland”.
Expect more of that rhetoric in the coming two weeks.
It is super, super close and flows from other candidates will play a crucial role here.
Incumbent centre-right party expected to win in Portugal – exit polls
There are two exit polls in Portugal, but Luís Montenegro’s Democratic Alliance is expected to come first in both of them, with somewhere between 29% and 34% of the vote.
The polls don’t seem to agree on who will be second, with Pitagórica poll saying it will be the far-right Chega (19.5% to 25.5%), just marginally ahead of the opposition Socialist party (PS) at 19.4% to 25.4%.
The CESOP-UCP exit poll has them the other way round, but with very similar numbers: PS at 21% to 26%, and Chega at 20% to 24%.
Polish presidential race is very close, projected winner Trzaskowski says
Jakub Krupa
But, as Trzaskowski says in his immediate comments, the race is “very close”.
In fact, it is much closer than anticipated.
A win is a win tonight, but these results will make Trzaskowski’s team nervous ahead of the run-off in two weeks’ time.
Far-right libertarian Sławomir Mentzen is third with 15.4%, clearly capturing some of the disenchanted vote, as expected.
I attended his rally earlier this week, and you can read my report here:
There is also a surprise in the fourth place: it’s ultra far-right candidate Grzegorz Braun – under probe for using fire extinguisher to put out Hanukah candles in Polish parliament – with 6.2%, well above the expectations and ahead of any of the left-wing candidates.
Trzaskowski, Nawrocki through to run-off in Poland – exit poll
The two favourites in Poland – centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski and radical-right historian Karol Nawrocki – are, as expected, safely through to the run-off on 1 June, according to the exit poll by Ipsos.
Rafał Trzaskowski (PO) 30.8%
Karol Nawrocki (PiS) 29.1%
Sławomir Mentzen 15.4%
Grzegorz Braun 6.2%
Adrian Zandberg 5.2%
Szymon Hołownia 4.8%
Magdalena Biejat 4.1%
Joanna Senyszyn 1.3%
Krzysztof Stanowski 1.3%
Marek Jakubiak 0.9%
Artur Bartoszewicz 0.5%
Maciej Maciak 0.4%
Marek Woch 0.1%
Exit polls in Poland, Portugal imminent
Exit polls in Poland and Portugal are imminent.
Ready?
Polish presidential hopefuls cast their votes
Jakub Krupa
Given the Polish electoral blackout rules, we don’t have too many comments from key candidates, but here are their pictures from when they cast their votes earlier today.
