André Snellings
Caitlin Clark has a quad strain and is expected to miss at least the next two weeks of action. What does that mean for the fantasy hoops and betting prospects of Clark and her teammates? Let’s explore.
Fantasy hoops angles:
Kelsey Mitchell tied with Clark to lead the Fever at 19.2 PPG last season, making the duo the highest-scoring backcourt in the WNBA, and she is the starter whose usage could increase the most while Clark is out.
Lexie Hull (available in 73.8% of ESPN leagues) and Sophie Cunningham (available in 52.0% of ESPN leagues) could both get key minutes as swing starters or even primary contributors off the bench.
DeWanna Bonner has struggled since joining the Fever this offseason, but Clark’s absence could lead to more shots for Bonner to potentially get her Fever career jump-started. Another newcomer, Natasha Howard, already has a 26-point effort under her belt this season and could become a more consistent scorer in Clark’s absence.
Betting angles:
The biggest changes in odds following the injury announcement came in the MVP and the championship markets. In the MVP race, Clark went from the odds-on favorite at -115 to +210, with Napheesa Collier taking over the lead (from +185 to -135) and A’ja Wilson’s odds improving from +825 to +600. If Clark is out for only the projected two weeks, she would still have plenty of time to reclaim her MVP momentum, but muscle injuries can linger and the season is only 44 games long.
Collier is in the best position to win the MVP based on her excellent play and her team’s strong start, but as the new odds-on favorite, she’s not getting a lot of juice. For best value, I would still lean to reigning MVP Wilson, who despite a relatively slower start has shown she has MVP mettle. Getting +600 odds for a player who has won three of the past five MVP awards is strong value.
The Fever’s odds to win the championship lengthened from +300 to +330, but I don’t expect Clark’s injury to truly affect those odds unless it lingers for much longer than expected. Based on the initial absence estimate of two weeks, the Fever would expect to face the 2-3 Mystics twice, the winless Sun and the winless Sky before a rematch with the Dream on June 10. With their improved lineup, the Fever could reasonably be expected to win all four games before facing the Dream again. If they do, they should maintain their spot in the standings during Clark’s absence.
