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The Friedrich Merz era got off to a shaky start. After years of infighting and drift in Berlin, the chancellor’s arrival was supposed to be a new beginning for Germany and for Europe, both yearning for more coherent and ambitious leadership. The loss of his first investiture vote in the Bundestag last week turned it into an embarrassing fiasco. Though it was reversed by another vote within hours, Merz will have to ensure the surprise setback does not come to define his chancellorship.
Much is riding on his success, and far beyond Germany. More than most European leaders, Merz seems ready to act at the scale demanded by the twin challenges of bolstering Europe’s security and competitiveness. He is a transatlanticist in one of Europe’s most transatlanticist parties, but has been outspoken about the need for the continent not to have to rely on the US. He has also been prepared to speak harsh truths to German business about their exposure to China. His willingness to break election promises and loosen the constitutional “debt brake” on public borrowing shows he can put his political money where his mouth is.
All the more damaging, then, that his parliamentary support is so wafer-thin. His confirmation vote defeat underscored the fragility of the new coalition, which holds just 52 per cent of seats, and its susceptibility to rebellions by disgruntled MPs on both sides as it handles tricky legislation on issues such as immigration and the budget. Since it was a secret ballot, the rebel MPs’ identity is unknown. But they acted recklessly in dealing such a blow to Merz’s authority and Germany’s image at a crucial moment.
The new coalition is about to embark on a massive expansion of public spending on infrastructure, business support and defence which are key to Germany’s economic revival. Merz’s sudden conversion over the debt rules infuriated some MPs from his own party but led to an early breakthrough in talks with his SPD coalition partners that was rightly celebrated across Europe. The eventual coalition programme, though, lacked ambition in its measures to raise Germany’s growth potential. Last week’s parliamentary stumble was not reassuring.
Merz will need to work to overcome the damage to his standing. There were already question marks over the leadership of a man who has never held a government position and is seen as temperamental. His ratings have sunk since the election, along with his party’s. But support for the far-right AfD — which Germany’s domestic intelligence agency this month classified as extremist — continues to grow.
Germany and Europe need Merz to be bold, starting with actually borrowing and spending the money he has allowed his government to raise. Doing so will inevitably make enemies. A lot will hinge on how he governs as chancellor, how he keeps his party on board, and how he manages disputes with his SPD coalition partner, whose leader Lars Klingbeil has made enemies of his own.
On his first days in office, Merz made rapid visits to Warsaw, Paris, the EU and Nato in Brussels, and then Kyiv. This week he will make his debut as chancellor on a broader stage at the 47-country European Political Community in Tirana. Leaders will be keen to assess his commitment to co-operation — especially with France’s Emmanuel Macron, with whom Merz’s predecessor Olaf Scholz had an uneasy relationship. The Scholz government’s inability to be decisive not only caused its own demise but frustrated European policymaking. But last week’s record high in the Dax index of leading German shares suggests investors are betting that Merz will be a dynamic force for change. He cannot afford to disappoint.
