Neil Paine
Multiple Authors
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
We’ll use a variety of metrics as guides, classifying teams based on how likely they are to make the field of 68 as one of the 37 at-large selections — conditional on not winning their respective conference tournaments for one of the 31 automatic qualifying bids (AQs). To that end, we’ll use Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology projections and a combination of data sources — including my forecast-model consensus and NCAA résumé metrics such as NET rankings that the selection committee will evaluate — to judge a team’s underlying potential. (For a full glossary of terms and sources, click here or scroll to the bottom of this story.)
We’ll sort teams in at-large contention into the following categories:
Locks: Teams that have nearly a 100% chance to be called by the committee as an at-large selection (if necessary). They would need a significant change in momentum to miss the cut. 29 current teams
Should be in: Teams tracking safely above the cutline (generally 75% consensus at-large odds or better), but not immune to trouble. Most likely, these teams should hear their names called on March 15, though their fates are not yet assured. 11 current teams
Work to do: Teams whose upcoming results will meaningfully change their fate (for good or bad). These are the truest “on the bubble” teams, because their chances are closest to a coin flip, though their consensus at-large odds may be as low as 10%. 15 current teams
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Note: All times Eastern.
Jump to a conference:
SEC | Big Ten | ACC
Big 12 | Big East
Mid-majors
SEC
10.0 expected bids (9.0 at-large)
Locks (6)
Florida Gators
Alabama Crimson Tide
Vanderbilt Commodores
Arkansas Razorbacks
Tennessee Volunteers
Kentucky Wildcats
Should be in (3)
Georgia Bulldogs
Updated: March 3, 9 p.m.
Georgia added another signature win Tuesday, surviving clock difficulties at Stegeman Coliseum to beat Alabama for its fourth win in five games. The victory boosted the Bulldogs’ consensus at-large chances well into the high 90s, all but ensuring their place among the “locks” now. With six Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé average that ranks seventh in what should be at least a 10-bid SEC, Georgia should feel great before a visit to Mississippi State in the regular-season finale.
Next game: at Mississippi State (Saturday)
Missouri Tigers
Updated: March 3, 9:26 p.m.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers fell at Oklahoma on Tuesday — though it really didn’t dent their at-large chances. Mizzou had already cracked the top eight of SEC teams in the résumé average (and the top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-10 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th toughest vs. fifth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as it sits around 90% with one more Quadrant 1 shot left to close the regular season.
Next game: vs. Arkansas (Saturday)
Texas Longhorns
Updated: March 1, 8 a.m.
After blowing a second-half lead to Florida for its second consecutive loss earlier this week, Texas got a massive road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday. It gave the Longhorns a sixth Quadrant 1 win for the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even “lock” Tennessee) can boast. The consensus forecast sets their at-large chances at 81%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. At No. 11 in the SEC résumé rankings, they are still neck and neck with Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn (all are borderline top-40 nationally), so their tournament fate is still not assured, but past teams with similar résumés all made the tourney.
Next game: at Arkansas (Wednesday)
Work to do (2)
Texas A&M Aggies
Updated: March 3, 9:31 p.m.
Recent losses to Arkansas and Texas sent Texas A&M’s at-large chances tumbling from “should be in” to “work to do” territory, but the Aggies clawed some of that positioning back with a home win over Kentucky on Tuesday. Bucky McMillan’s squad still sits at 73% in the consensus of models, so they’re far from a “lock.” They do have five Quadrant 1 victories now but rank 11th among SEC teams in our résumé rating (mid-40s nationally), and parsing their bona fides against the conference’s other bubble teams such as Texas and Auburn still won’t be an easy task for the committee.
Next game: at LSU (Saturday)
Auburn Tigers
Updated: March 3, 11:59 p.m.
The Tigers desperately needed a win after losing seven of their previous eight games, and they finally got it against LSU on Tuesday. They have an interesting case for the committee, but have all but run out of wiggle room: Though they have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and are borderline top 40 in the national résumé ranking average, their 14 losses are by far the most among the SEC bubble tier. Teams with résumés most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not, per Bart Torvik, which explains why the Tigers’ consensus chances hover in the 30% range ahead of their regular-season finale.
Next game: at Alabama (Saturday)
BIG TEN
9.2 expected bids; 8.2 at-large
Locks (6)
Michigan Wolverines
Illinois Fighting Illini
Purdue Boilermakers
Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
Should be in (3)
Iowa Hawkeyes
Updated: Feb. 28, 2:52 p.m.
With Wednesday’s victory over fellow Big Ten bubble team Ohio State barely in the rearview, Iowa let Saturday’s game against Penn State slip away late as a big favorite. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes remain in relatively good shape. But the trip to State College was supposed to be the easy leg of their remaining schedule, as they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska.
Next game: vs. Michigan (Thursday)
UCLA Bruins
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:01 p.m.
The Bruins’ brief winning streak against Illinois and crosstown bubble rival USC came to an end on Saturday at Minnesota. Despite picking up their 10th loss, they have three Quadrant 1 victories on the season, placing their résumé eighth in what Bracketology projects to be a nine-bid Big Ten. Their consensus at-large odds remain a tick below 90% in the forecast models.
Next game: vs. Nebraska (Tuesday)
Ohio State Buckeyes
Updated: March 2, 8:23 a.m.
Recovering from back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Iowa, the Buckeyes picked up a huge win for their at-large chances on Sunday. The victory over Purdue boosted their numbers into the 80% range, making them one of the weekend’s biggest winners. Ohio State ranks inside the top 40 of the predictive rankings, though the résumé figure has consistently lagged behind that, keeping the Buckeyes from escaping the bubble for very long. Even after beating Purdue, their résumé ranking (42nd overall, 9th in Big Ten) isn’t far from the cutline both nationally and for the league. But notching their first Quadrant 1-A win of the year was big before games against Penn State and bubble rival Indiana to close the schedule.
Next game: at Penn State (Wednesday)
Work to do (2)
Indiana Hoosiers
Updated: March 2, 8:23 a.m.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost four straight — to Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern and, on Sunday, Michigan State — plunging its conditional at-large probability down to 45%. The Hoosiers’ portfolio is losing ground relative to other bubble teams — Indiana now ranks outside the top 50 in the national résumé average, still 10th in the conference — even though the team remains among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. On a day when bubble rival Ohio State defeated Purdue, IU’s loss puts its tournament future in real flux.
Next game: vs. Minnesota (Wednesday)
USC Trojans
Updated: March 1, 7:14 p.m.
A three-game winning streak to open February had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but five straight losses — including to a ranked Nebraska team on Saturday — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 14%. They have the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be a nine-bid conference. Making matters worse, Sunday brought news that Chad Baker-Mazara, who leads the Trojans in scoring (18.6 PPG), is no longer with the program.
Next game: at Washington (Wednesday)
ACC
7.9 expected bids; 6.9 at-large
Locks (5)
Duke Blue Devils
Virginia Cavaliers
North Carolina Tar Heels
Louisville Cardinals
NC State Wolfpack
Should be in (3)
Clemson Tigers
Updated: March 3, 9:16 p.m.
Fresh off a nice résumé win over Louisville on Saturday, the Tigers hung with North Carolina in Chapel Hill on Tuesday — even leading midway through the second half — but ultimately fell for their fifth loss in six games. It doesn’t spell doom for Clemson, though; it still ranks no worse than seventh in the ACC in résumé average, and its consensus at-large chances remain above 90% — down from 98% after the recent slump, but still high enough in the conference’s pecking order to feel optimistic about its chances ahead of the regular-season finale against Georgia Tech. A win would give the Tigers a much-needed momentum reset ahead of the ACC tournament.
Next game: vs. Georgia Tech (Saturday)
Miami Hurricanes
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:15 p.m.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State with a one-sided win over Boston College on Saturday. Their at-large chances (near 90%) and national résumé quality ranking (around top 30) are bunched up next to SMU and Clemson — the trio all fit within the top eight of the ACC with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be an eight-bid conference. A couple of tough opponents are next in SMU and Louisville, but the Canes are in good shape.
Next game: at SMU (Wednesday)
SMU Mustangs
Updated: March 2, 8:32 a.m.
The Mustangs improved their projections over the past few weeks, but back-to-back losses at California and Stanford slowed that momentum. They have been neck and neck with Miami and Clemson, jockeying for the sixth position in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Despite the defeats, SMU’s consensus at-large chances are in the high 70% range — solid enough, if drifting some from both the Hurricanes and Tigers. All three teams are well clear of the conference’s “work to do” tier featuring Cal and Virginia Tech. The Mustangs will try to get back on track against Miami then Florida State.
Next game: vs. Miami (Wednesday)
Work to do (2)
Virginia Tech Hokies
Updated: March 3, 10:55 p.m.
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with a win over Boston College on Tuesday, its second victory in three games after previously losing four of five. The Hokies’ consensus at-large chances are still low, rising to just 23% with the victory. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating inside the nation’s top 50, so their case could get interesting if they can knock off Virginia in the regular-season finale.
Next game: at Virginia (Saturday)
California Golden Bears
Updated: Feb. 28, 6:20 p.m.
After Cal’s recent stretch of victories over Boston College, Stanford and SMU breathed life into the Golden Bears’ at-large odds, a double-digit Quadrant 3 home loss to Pittsburgh changed their trajectory. They currently sit around 50th nationally in the résumé ranking — borderline bubble territory — and have four Quadrant 1 wins. But with a consensus at-large probability now in the 10% to 15% range, with only one more chance at a Quadrant 1 victory (at Wake Forest on March 7), the Bears are in a less-than-ideal spot.
Next game: at Georgia Tech (Wednesday)
BIG 12
7.8 expected bids (6.8 at-large)
Locks (6)
Arizona Wildcats
Houston Cougars
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Iowa State Cyclones
Kansas Jayhawks
BYU Cougars
Should be in (1)
UCF Knights
Updated: March 3, 9:40 p.m.
After regaining momentum with three straight wins in mid-February, UCF has since lost back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma State — the latter of which the Knights came out hot but could not take control of the game. Still, UCF is in solid shape. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even in the top 40 — they still easily should have that seventh slot.
Next game: at West Virginia (Friday)
Work to do (2)
TCU Horned Frogs
Updated: March 3, 9:10 p.m.
The Horned Frogs’ case for the Big 12’s final at-large bid strengthened again with their seventh win in eight games, adding one of their best victories of the season at Texas Tech on Tuesday. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen into the 70% range, up from just 10% three weeks ago, and they have five Quadrant 1 wins after downing the Red Raiders. They have a clear case to be the conference’s eighth tournament team, even with Cincinnati surging — their overall résumé is superior to the Bearcats’ — and the latest Bracketology sets the Big 12 with that many entries. Though a big head-to-head with Cincy awaits, it’s looking more likely than not that TCU will hear its name on Selection Sunday
Next game: vs. Cincinnati (Saturday)
Cincinnati Bearcats
Updated: March 3, 11:20 p.m.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued with a convincing Quadrant 1 win over BYU on Tuesday for their sixth win in seven games. They are still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances in the mid-30% range. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: Iowa State, Kansas and now BYU. But their recent hot streak sets up a big regular-season finale against fellow bubble team TCU.
Next game: at TCU (Saturday)
BIG EAST
3.2 expected bids (2.2 at-large)
Locks (3)
UConn Huskies
St. John’s Red Storm
Villanova Wildcats
Should be in (0)
None
Work to do (1)
Seton Hall Pirates
Updated: March 3, 9:22 p.m.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates salvaged their bid (for now) by stifling Xavier with a 19-4 second-half run that helped them win for the fourth time in six games. Their at-large chances still sit a tick below 20% in the forecast composite, and they’re still stinging from the missed opportunity to add a much-needed résumé boost against UConn on Saturday. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a couple of Quadrant 1 wins. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation.
Next game: vs. St. John’s (Friday)
OTHERS
Locks (3)
Gonzaga Bulldogs (West Coast Conference)
Utah State Aggies (Mountain West)
Saint Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
Should be in (1)
Saint Louis Billikens (Atlantic 10)
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:14 p.m.
Coming off its ugliest loss of the season — by 15 points at Dayton — Saint Louis had to hold off Duquesne on Saturday to avoid a third loss in four games. The Billikens have been a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, and aren’t in much danger of not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary. They are still top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, and rank even better in the predictive ratings.
Next game: vs. Loyola Chicago (Wednesday)
Work to do (6)
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (MAC)
Updated: March 3, 9:05 p.m.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, rallying to beat Western Michigan last week and then surviving a tight battle with Toledo on Tuesday to remain the sole remaining unbeaten team in Division I. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though they rank inside the top 40 on résumé; the committee has never excluded an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season; and Miami made the field as an at-large team during a recent NCAA-ran mock selection exercise. It’s true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 317th-toughest schedule in the nation. But wins matter. And they are now only one away from an undefeated regular season, at which point it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they were to lose in the MAC tournament.
Next game: at Ohio (Friday)
Santa Clara Broncos (WCC)
Updated: Feb. 28, 10:37 p.m.
The Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s comparisons will be constant as we debate whether the West Coast Conference could get three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons. After beating Oregon State to finish the regular season Saturday, the Broncos still have model chances in the 70% range and a top-40 résumé ranking nationally, but their fate appears to hang almost entirely upon what they do in the conference tournament and/or whether the selection committee will send that extra WCC at-large team to the Big Dance.
Next game: WCC tournament (March 5-10)
New Mexico Lobos (MW)
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:26 p.m.
Seeking a third straight tournament bid for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico got closer to that reality on Saturday after avenging its Jan. 17 loss to San Diego. The Lobos’ chances are still around a coin flip based on their borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but they have more Quadrant 1 and 2 wins than the Aztecs and have now evened the head-to-head scales.
Next game: vs. Colorado State (Wednesday)
San Diego State Aztecs (MW)
Updated: Feb. 28, 4:26 p.m.
Just when the Aztecs seemed to be sliding out of the bubble picture with consecutive losses to Grand Canyon and Colorado State, they responded by taking down conference leader Utah State by 17 on Wednesday night. They weren’t as fortunate on Saturday, losing a nail-biter at New Mexico. The loss once again cast their consensus at-large chances in doubt, dropping them from around a coin flip to the 30% range. Already borderline top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking, they remain squarely on the bubble but are trending in the wrong direction. The Mountain West could potentially send three teams to the tournament — it hasn’t fallen below that threshold in five seasons — and with a fairly sizable gap in at-large chances between SDSU and New Mexico vs. the next-best teams, both teams could get in regardless. But if the MWC gets only two bids, Saturday’s loss to the Lobos could haunt the Aztecs.
Next game: at Boise State (Tuesday)
VCU Rams (A-10)
Updated: March 3, 9:44 p.m.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit around a 30% consensus at-large chance) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. That’s in part because the Rams are 1-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a recent collapse at Saint Louis that hurt their at-large case. They are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), though, and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 12 of 13 after holding off George Mason on Tuesday. They also could add a second Quadrant 1 win over Dayton on Friday. But it remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid (which has happened in three of five years).
Next game: at Dayton (Friday)
South Florida Bulls (American)
Updated: March 1, 2:14 p.m.
Bubble Watch’s newest addition, the Bulls have won 10 of their past 11 games — seven straight after beating Tulane convincingly Sunday. It brings their consensus at-large chance into the mid-teens, the highest it has been all season. They’re 21-8 overall with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and they rank 53rd in the national résumé average. Their at-large odds are long without many more chances to bolster their case — their best remaining game is at Quadrant 2 Memphis — but they are undeniably on a hot streak.
Next game: at Memphis (Thursday)
Glossary of terms
Model consensus: A blend of the conditional at-large bid odds found via BartTorvik, TeamRankings, JThom Analytics and ESPN Analytics.
Résumé ranking: An average of rankings in strength of record (SOR), NET, KPI and wins above bubble (WAB).
Predictive ranking: An average of rankings in the Basketball Power Index (BPI), KenPom ratings (KP), Bart Torvik’s “Barthagorean” ratings, TeamRankings’ power ratings and Sports-Reference’s SRS ratings.
Strength of schedule and projected records are according to the BPI.
