The NBA playoffs’ second round begins Sunday but, before the league moves on, two Game 7s loom large on the schedule.
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves made quick work of their first-round opponents, but the other two Western Conference series have proven to be the most competitive of the NBA playoffs’ opening round.
The LA Clippers forced a Game 7 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT) in Denver after a 111-105 victory over the Nuggets on Thursday while the Houston Rockets, down 3-1 on Wednesday, kept their season alive with a 115-107 win at Golden State on Friday night. The two teams will meet on Sunday (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT) with a chance to face the Timberwolves in the second round.
With the first round’s two biggest games ahead this weekend, what are the biggest factors for both Game 7s and how can each of the four teams move on to the second round? Our NBA insiders answer the biggest Game 7 questions.
How can the Clippers advance?
The Clippers finally went to a small lineup, featuring Nicolas Batum, in the second half of Game 6. It was designed to create space for James Harden and Kawhi Leonard, and none other than Nikola Jokic said it’s about damn time. No, those weren’t his words. But he was blunt.
“Batum is a much better shooter than Kris Dunn,” the three-time MVP said. “[He] is a great defensive player. He can guard 1 through 5. I don’t think they lack [anything] defensively with Batum. They’re probably going to start him next game.”
Clippers coach Tyronn Lue resisted that offense-for-defense swap because of how much he values Dunn’s defense. But if Batum can be as effective offensively and defensively as he was Thursday night, the Clippers already have the winning recipe. They just need to follow it.
How can the Nuggets advance?
The Nuggets are the bigger, more physical team, and when they’ve made the Clippers feel them, they’ve exerted their will in this series. That starts with Jokic.
He needs to take it to Clippers center Ivica Zubac and force the referees to call more fouls than they did in Los Angeles (Jokic shot just two free throws in Game 6) while reminding everyone he’s the best player on the planet.
When he is physical and aggressive early, the Denver offense opens and explosive options emerge — as we saw in Game 5 when Jamal Murray punished the Clippers with a dazzling display of shotmaking.
How did we get here?
This series has been everything we thought it would be — and more. Each star has had at least one signature game: Westbrook in Game 1; Leonard in Game 2, Zubac and Harden in Game 3, Jokic and Aaron Gordon in Game 4, Murray in Game 5; and Harden again in Game 6.
Both coaches have been excellent in motivating their teams and adapting throughout the series. My only question is which team has the most left? Everyone is tired and several key players have injuries they are playing through. The Nuggets have played in the most Game 7s of any team since 2019 while Lue is one of the best elimination-game coaches ever. Jokic and Leonard have Finals MVPs.
“If you like basketball like a real fan, not a fake fan of basketball, these are the games you should watch,” Jokic said.
This should be a classic. — Ramona Shelburne
Key factors for Game 7
I’ll be watching the fatigue factor closely. Jamal Murray has played the most minutes of any player in the first round, while Nikola Jokic is fourth. Two other Denver starters (Christian Braun and Aaron Gordon) have played more than any Clipper other than James Harden.
The Clippers are somewhat deeper, but Ty Lue has had to rely more on his stars than he would prefer. Harden played the entire second half of Thursday’s Game 6, the second time in this series he has done so, and fatigue surely played a role in the Clippers’ offense stumbling to the finish line.
The fatigue element makes getting off to a good start important. In Game 5, the Nuggets’ early lead enabled interim coach David Adelman to rest Jokic in both halves, keeping him fresh. If the Clippers get off to a strong start, Adelman might not have that luxury. When Jokic played the entire second half of both Games 2 and 4, he wore down late, allowing the Clippers to hold off Denver in Game 2 and erase a 16-point deficit in Game 4 before Aaron Gordon’s buzzer-beater gave the Nuggets a crucial win.
With the volume of close games, the high level of play and the altitude in Denver, this series has taken a toll on both teams. The real winner, either way? The Oklahoma City Thunder, who were the first team to advance this postseason by completing a sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies a week ago.
Whichever team has more in the tank for Game 7 will likely advance. — Kevin Pelton
How can the Warriors advance?
Golden State’s Game 7 experience in the playoffs has to be a supreme advantage Sunday. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green have played in five Game 7s. Jimmy Butler has played in four. Steve Kerr has coached in four as well.
The Warriors have to solve the Houston zone defense and free up Curry on offense. Curry had 29 points in Game 6 but only 13 in the second half, when he shot 4-for-13. Curry and Green are 3-2 all time in Game 7s, and they won big at Sacramento in their last Game 7 in 2023 with Curry exploding for 50 points. The Golden State star has averaged 32.6 points in Game 7 in his career, fourth most by any player in NBA history, behind only Kevin Durant, LeBron James and Michael Jordan, according to ESPN Research.
Butler will have to add another chapter to his “Playoff Jimmy” legacy with an epic game in Houston. But the Warriors need to get Curry and Butler more offensive help. A third scorer must step up, whether that’s Brandin Podziemski, Buddy Hield or a Moses Moody hitting timely outside shots to break that zone. Green will also have to play like a Defensive Player of the Year after he finished third in voting for the award this season. Golden State must keep its turnovers down and get a hold on Fred VanVleet. And, on top of everything else, they could use a wild card. Kerr said “everything is on the table” for Game 7, including perhaps Jonathan Kuminga seeing some playing time. — Ohm Youngmisuk
How can the Rockets advance?
Coach Ime Udoka has preached the importance of consistency, playing the right way and making the simple plays over and over so nothing has changed from that standpoint. Houston has given Golden State a difficult time when it utilizes its double-big lineups, which feature some zone looks “out of necessity,” according to Udoka “to protect some matchups there.”
Surprisingly, the Rockets employed some zone defense with the sharpshooting Stephen Curry on the floor.
“Our activity up top is great, and the principles with obviously Curry and recognizing where he is in the zone, it takes a lot of communication,” Udoka said. “And if you stay with him, we fill the spots behind it.”
Golden State will look for ways in Game 7 to make Houston pay when it employs those schemes with Curry on the floor. Houston needs to continue to impose its physicality on the older, banged up Warriors, while continuing to win at paint scoring and second-chance points. Udoka often talks about Houston’s mantra of turning defense into offense, which often allows the Rockets to get out and run. The Rockets scored 22 points off 17 Golden State turnovers in Game 6. Players such as Amen Thompson, Dillon Brooks, and Jalen Green will be key in helping the Rockets rack up fast-break points. — Michael C. Wright
How did they get here?
The Warriors stole Game 1 in Houston, winning a game that Steve Kerr said felt like it was out of 1997 in terms of physicality, defense and the importance of every possession. Curry scored 31 points and Butler looked like Playoff Jimmy with 25 points, seven rebounds, six assists and five steals. Houston, though, rebounded in Game 2 with a 109-94 rout that saw Jalen Green get loose for 38 points. Butler was limited to just eight minutes in the first quarter after Amen Thompson undercut him on a defensive rebounding, resulting in a painful and deep glute muscle contusion.
Butler missed Game 3 due to the injury, but the Warriors gutted out a 104-93 win at home thanks to 36 points, nine assists and seven rebounds from Curry. Golden State then took what felt like a commanding 3-1 lead when Butler scored 14 of his 27 points in the fourth quarter and secured the biggest rebound of the season after Draymond Green forced an Alperen Sengun miss with 6.4 seconds left.
The Rockets, though, routed Golden State in Game 5, going up by 31 at one point early in the third quarter before Kerr took his starters out with 5:50 remaining. In Game 6, Golden State failed to close the series out at home as it missed 14 of its first 15 shots of the fourth quarter, allowing Houston to go on a 20-5 run. The Rockets’ zone defense has stymied Golden State and neutralized Curry at times to force a Game 7. — Youngmisuk
Key factors for Game 7
Houston’s use of double-big lineups with Steven Adams and Sengun has been a defining element of this series. Golden State managed to win Game 4 despite being outscored by 18 points in the 22.5 minutes Adams and Sengun played together. With everything working in Game 5, Udoka didn’t need to use his two centers as much, but they were plus-eight in 13 minutes.
The fourth quarter of Game 6 was the biggest stage yet for Adams and Sengun, who shared the court for nearly the entire period before both teams pulled their starters. The Rockets’ double-bigs were plus-nine in that span, and this time Udoka didn’t blink when Steve Kerr intentionally fouled Adams — a change from Game 4, when Udoka pulled Adams and didn’t bring him back until the final two minutes, when intentional fouls away from the play are treated like a technical foul.
Adams went 9-of-16 from the line on intentional fouls and Sengun managed to rebound two of his misses, translating into 13 total points on eight possessions, good for a 162.5 offensive rating.
Part of the challenge for the Warriors is that Houston has been able to use Adams — blocking shots at a career-high rate in this series — and Sengun in a hybrid defense that keeps a defender in Stephen Curry’s airspace at all times. Curry still shook loose for 29 points and six 3s in Game 6, but he shot just 9-of-23 and committed five turnovers.
While Udoka has been finding new lineup combinations that work well, the Warriors’ coaching staff can’t seem to figure out the best fivesome. Kerr started Payton in Game 6 to improve the team’s point-of-attack defense on VanVleet, but the Rockets don’t have to worry about Payton as a 3-point shooter like Brandin Podziemski. Besides Curry, Golden State’s other four starters shot a combined 3-of-18 from 3-point range. — Pelton
