Novo Nordisk (NVO) earnings Q1 2025

Shares of Novo Nordisk jumped nearly 7% on Wednesday after it said sales of its blockbuster Wegovy weight loss drug were seen improving in the second half of the year as the availability of copycat compounded drugs is phased out.

The Danish pharmaceutical giant reported lower-than-expected first-quarter sales of its flagship obesity drug and trimmed its full-year sales growth forecast as alternative versions of the drug have eaten away at its U.S. market share.

However, CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen told CNBC that the end of a drug shortage ruling by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) would allow sales to pick up again later in the year.

“Compounders took a part of our business away,” Jørgensen told CNBC’s Charlotte Reed.

“We now expect that compounding will be knocked off, so to say, and we get that business growth going forward,” he added.

Shares of Novo Nordisk rose as much as 6.7% following the comments. The stock was last seen up 3.8% by 12:10 p.m. London time.

The drugmaker on Wednesday reported a better-than-expected rise in first-quarter net profit of 29.03 billion Danish kroner ($4.4 billion) for the three-month period to the end of March, ahead of the 27.8 billion Danish kroner forecast by analysts in an LSEG poll.

Sales of the company’s popular Wegovy obesity drug rose 83% annually at constant exchange rates to 17.36 billion Danish kroner, coming in slightly below the 18.51 billion Danish kroner anticipated by analysts in a Factset poll Tuesday.

Overall revenues at Novo Nordisk — which also produces diabetes and rare disease treatments — rose 18% to 78.09 billion Danish kroner versus an expected 78.18 million Danish kroner.

For 2025, the company said it now sees sales growth of 13% to 21% at constant exchange rates, below the 16% to 24% previously forecast in February. Operating profit growth is forecast at 16% to 24%, versus 19% to 27% previously.

Jørgensen attributed the reduced forecast to rising competition from compounded weight loss drugs in the U.S. in the early part of the year.

“In the first quarter of 2025, we delivered 18% sales growth and continued to expand the reach of our innovative GLP-1 treatments,” Jørgensen said in a statement.

“However, we have reduced our full-year outlook due to lower than-planned branded GLP-1 penetration, which is impacted by the rapid expansion of compounding in the U.S.”

U.S. compounding pharmacies had been permitted to make legal copies of Novo’s Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic under a drug shortage ruling by the FDA.

The FDA declared that shortage over in February, giving compounding pharmacies until May 22 to cease selling copies of the drug. As such, Novo said it expects sales of compounded alternatives to ease soon, and reiterated that it would pursue companies that continue to unlawfully distribute such copycat drugs.

“Following the U.S. FDA removal of semaglutide injectables from the FDA drug shortage list, the sales outlook assumes a reduction in patients on compounded GLP-1 treatment during the second half of 2025,” the company said.

Jørgensen also pointed to the launch of a new direct-to-consumer online pharmacy and partnerships with telehealth providers Hims & Hers Health, Ro and LifeMD, which he said would lower Wegovy costs and provide a “safe, trusted alternative” for patients who had previously been using compounders.

An announcement last week from CVS Health, which will expand access to Wegovy for patients covered by its pharmacy benefit manager, Caremark, will only add to that access.

“They have now excluded the competitive products, so we have exclusivity with them,” Jørgensen said. “We did not bid for exclusivity. We believe in open access, so it was CVS that made a decision to focus on Wegovy.”

Emily Field, head of European pharmaceuticals research at Barclays, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that the key indicator for Novo would now be whether they can generate prescription volume growth in the U.S. when competition from compounders goes away.

“Over the summer, it’s going to be put up or shut up for Wegovy. Either scripts [prescriptions] come back, or I think people are just going to assume well Lilly takes this whole market,” she said.

The results come amid runaway demand for the drugmaker’s blockbuster GLP-1 weight loss treatments, which work by mimicking a hormone called glucagon-like peptide-1 to suppress appetite.

However, the company has struggled to shake negative sentiment following a series of disappointing trial results for its next-generation obesity drug candidate CagriSema.

Novo Nordisk confirmed Wednesday that it plans to file for regulatory approval of CagriSema in the first quarter of 2026. Meanwhile, it has applied for regulatory U.S. approval of an oral version of its existing semaglutide treatment, which it said has the potential to be “the first oral GLP-1 treatment for obesity.”

“I’m very optimistic on CagriSema,” Jørgensen said. “From the data we have, CagriSema is the best product that has been tested out or is on the market, and we believe we can get those data even better.”

Competition is heating up in the weight loss drug market, with pharma firms including Roche, AstraZeneca and AbbVie all currently developing potential new candidates.

Novo’s key U.S. rival Eli Lilly on Thursday reported an expectation-beating 45% rise in first-quarter sales, though revenues for its popular weight-loss drug Zepbound came in slightly lower than expected on lower drug pricing. The U.S. drugmaker also lowered its full-year profit guidance due to charges related to a recent cancer treatment deal, sending shares lower.