Poland’s president-elect Karol Nawrocki is taking up a largely ceremonial role, but his impact on the country’s politics in the next five years may be profound.
Nawrocki’s supporters, the national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) opposition, feel re-energised after losing power 18 months ago to Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition.
They view his success in Sunday’s vote – by a margin of 50.9% – 40.1% over liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski – as the first step to a return to power.
Poland’s president has limited influence on foreign and defence policy, but can propose and veto bills. Tusk’s government lacks a big enough parliamentary majority to overturn a presidential veto.
The outgoing conservative president, Andrzej Duda, has used his blocking powers to prevent the prime minister from delivering on many of his key campaign promises.
They include legalising civil partnerships including same-sex relationships, accelerating onshore wind farm developments and removing political influence from the judiciary.
Nawrocki, a socially conservative 42-year-old historian, is widely expected to be an even tougher opponent for Tusk than Duda. Some believe the resulting paralysis could tempt the government to hold early elections before the scheduled autumn 2027 deadline.
“In all probability it will mean early elections, because he will veto any law the government passes,” Konstanty Gebert, a journalist for weekly magazine Kultura Liberalna told the BBC.
“Constitutionally, early elections are difficult to do if the government doesn’t want them, but if it is going from defeat to defeat and cannot govern, they might decide that they are the lesser evil,” he explained.
Tusk’s government has a parliamentary majority, so it can stay in office until autumn 2027 unless the coalition breaks up.
That union includes the conservative People’s party, centrists and leftists, which is a key reason why Tusk has failed to reach an agreement on issues like abortion and civil partnerships.
Alternatively, the government could decide early elections are in its best interests.
Nawrocki is a proud Polish patriot, a conservative Catholic who opposes illegal migration, extending legal rights to people in same-sex relationships, and liberalising the country’s strict abortion law.
He believes Tusk’s vision of cementing Poland in the EU mainstream by relying on good relations with Brussels, Berlin and Paris runs counter to Polish national interests. Those interests are best served, he says, by standing up to Germany when their opinions diverge and not ceding more powers to Brussels. Nawrocki opposes the EU’s climate proposals, such as the Green Deal, because he says limiting greenhouse gas emissions will harm small Polish farmers.
Nawrocki supports continued military and humanitarian assistance to neighbouring Ukraine. Poland is home to the international hub for supplies to Kyiv. But he does not believe that Ukraine joining Nato or the EU whilst Russian aggression is ongoing enhances Poland’s security.
He’s a supporter of US President Donald Trump and criticised the approach Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky took during the infamous Oval Office dressing down. US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem flew to Poland a few days before the election to endorse Nawrocki, a keen amateur boxer, calling him a “strong” leader like Trump.
The election result was close, similar to that won by Duda against Trzaskowski five years ago, a sign that the country’s political polarisation has not eased.
In a premature victory speech, delivered after an exit poll gave him a razor-thin win immediately after voting ended on Sunday night, Trzaskowski vowed to be a president for all Poles.
Speaking at the same time, Nawrocki made no such promises. Instead, he told his supporters that his campaign managed to unite the “patriotic camp” in Poland. Neither candidate inspired confidence that they would make constructive efforts to reach out to the other side.
Prolonged conflict between the two political groups that have dominated Polish politics for two decades, may feed into increased support for anti-establishment parties, such as the far-right Confederation or the hard left.
Confederation’s young libertarian candidate Slawomir Mentzen continued the group’s recent gains, coming third in the first round of the presidential election. Could it increase its support, and might it be persuaded to join a future PiS-led government?
Another Confederation leader Krzysztof Bosak denied the latter possibility on Monday, saying the two parties would not get closer because they’re fighting for the same voters.
