The first official day of fall is only weeks away, meaning it’s time to prepare for your leaf peeping adventures to come. And SmokyMountains.com is back with its detailed foliage map to help you do just that.Â
In late August, the website put out its map and its coming predictions using what it calls a “refined data model that depends on a combination of factors, including historical temperature and precipitation, forecast temperature and precipitation, the type of tree known to be prominent in that geographic region, the historical trends in that area,” along with something extra: user data.
In 2022, the website introduced the ability for users to provide real-time leaf reports, which update the current year and inform future models. “After publishing our predictive fall foliage map for nearly a decade, we are confident in our data sources, process, and algorithm,” the team added in a statement. However, this is the weather we are talking about, meaning things can always change.Â
“Similar to a weekend weather forecast, the timing of our map update is important. The backbone of the map is meteorology—temperature, moisture, sunlight, and precipitation,” they shared. “While meteorology is most accurate immediately before an event, a forecast is more useful to travelers and end users when made in advance. With our unique blend of historical and forecast data, we are able to make a highly accurate prediction by the end of August. The drastic year-to-year changes dictate that we create a new map from scratch with new data each year. Our end goal is to produce a map that’s useful and fun!”
As for how to use the map, it’s as simple as it gets. Just click over to the map and use the slider at the bottom to see the week-to-week changes across the country so you can plan your travels according to the changing of the leaves. Green indicates the trees that have not begun to change colors, while the brown color means that the leaves are past their peak. The brighter hues show where the leaves will be at their peak.Â
SmokyMountains.com
This, however, isn’t the only tool the team has available for would-be peepers. It also offers a scientific overview of why leaves change, so families can learn together about the gorgeous views they will get to see. It’s also created a very handy list of the best leaf peeping spots in all 50 states.
This season, the team is anticipating cooler, drier weather for the Northeast, which could cause the leaves to change color a bit earlier than usual, resulting in more vivid colors as well.Â
“Forecasts show cooler-than-average temperatures and below-normal precipitation in the Northeast and Appalachians, peak foliage should be arriving early and looking vibrant,” it stated, adding that northern New England, the Adirondacks, and the Poconos are expected to reach peak color as early as late September to early October.
Meanwhile, higher mountain terrain, including the Rockies, the Cascades, the Smoky Mountains, and the Blue Ridge, could likely hit their peak color “well over a week earlier than lower-elevation areas within their same state.” It added, “This creates beautiful, layered spreads of yellow and orange cascading down valleys as the season unfolds.”Â
Next up will be the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes in mid-October, followed by the Mid-South and central U.S. in late October, ending in the Deep South, Southern Plains, and Florida, where peak color may not arrive until early to mid-November.
The only regions that may be in for a bit of fall disappointment are the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West, which are projected to be warmer and wetter than normal, potentially pushing color changes to later in the year, keeping vibrancy low. The site also predicts that the Southeast and Deep South are expected to be warmer and drier than usual, leading to a “delayed and potentially more subdued foliage.”Â
As for the site’s home state of Tennessee, it’s expecting the area to peak in late October, between Oct. 20 and Oct. 31. Vermont could likely hit its peak between Sept. 29 and Oct. 10, while Washington state could see its peak colors between Oct. 6 and Oct. 17. Upstate New York will see its peak between Oct. 6 and Oct. 17, and Colorado will see its leaves change around the same time, between Oct. 13 and Oct. 17.
Check out the full map and all the regional and state predictions at SmokyMountains.com.