Volkanovski’s striking skill is among the best in the sport, and he has elite striking metrics. Volkanovski has landed over six significant strikes per minute and has landed nearly twice the amount of strikes he has absorbed. Volkanovski’s striking differential ranks ninth best among all active UFC fighters. Volkanovski has recorded more significant strikes than his opponent in all but one UFC fight—his short-notice loss up a weight class to Makhachev. Even in his recent loss to Topuria, Volkanovski landed more significant strikes, including landing more significant strikes to the head.
If this fight stays at distance, Volkanovski should have the striking edge over Lopes. Lopes does have pop, which was best on display in his impressive uppercut knockout of Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300, but Lopes’ striking skill is not on the same level as Volkanovski, which is supported by their striking metrics. Lopes has landed approximately the same amount of strikes he has absorbed, a ratio noticeably worse than Volkanovski’s, and has landed two less significant strikes per minute than Volkanovski.
Despite the concerning trends of Volkanovski’s age and recent knockout losses, Volkanovski is in a good spot to rebound in a more favorable matchup and reclaim the featherweight title.
Pick: Alexander Volkanovski Moneyline (-120)
Other bet to consider: Alexander Volkanovski -5.5 Point Spread (+140)
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