Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane
Aspinall has been one of the UFC’s quickest finishers. Aspinall has the shortest average fight time in UFC history among qualified fighters, averaging only two minutes per fight. Aspinall is very well-rounded, especially by the standards of the heavyweight division, combining punching power, speed, athleticism and quality grappling. Aspinall is capable of ending fights quickly with his hands, and he is also capable of taking opponents to the ground and finishing fights with submissions.
Aspinall has recorded massive striking volume on a per minute basis, landing over eight significant strikes per minute, third most among qualified fighters in UFC history. Aspinall combines potent offensive striking with good striking defense. Aspinall has avoided 65% of opponent significant strike attempts and has absorbed under three significant strikes per minute. As a result, Aspinall’s striking differential is the best in UFC history. Aspinall also has phenomenal grappling metrics, successfully finishing 100% of his takedown attempts and stopping 100% of opponent takedown attempts. Aspinall is averaging over three takedowns per 15 minutes, also a strong rate.
Despite Aspinall’s dominance and elite skill set, this matchup could be longer than expected if it stays at distance. Gane has recorded the sixth-longest average fight time in the history of the UFC heavyweight division at roughly 14 minutes per fight. Part of this is due to Gane’s style, which is patient and methodical and involves Gane finding his range from distance. However, Gane also has good striking defense and a solid chin. Gane has absorbed only two significant strikes per minute and has avoided 61% of opponent significant strike attempts. Gane went 25 minutes with Francis Ngannou, one of the hardest punchers in UFC history, and kept himself safe from knockout blows.
Gane’s biggest weakness is his grappling, which was on display in his loss to Jon Jones. Gane has stopped only 43% of opponent takedown attempts and was taken down three times in his most recent fight by Alexander Volkov, who is not known to be a big offensive grappler. Aspinall is a significantly better grappler than Gane and Aspinall’s best path to victory in this fight is likely through takedowns and offensive grappling. Taking a method of victory double chance bet of Aspinall to win by submission or decision gives coverage in the event Gane is able to survive for 25 minutes.
Pick: Tom Aspinall to win by submission or decision (+250)
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Umar Nurmagomedov has been a strong fantasy scorer due to his elite grappling. Nurmagomedov has recorded over three takedowns per 15 minutes and has generated a control time percentage of 34%, which ranks fifth best in the bantamweight division. Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on the slate at over -600 on DraftKings Sportsbook for his fight against Mario Bautista, making him highly likely to get the win in comfortable fashion. Nurmagomedov is worth paying up for in DraftKings fantasy UFC contests despite his hefty $9,600 price tag.
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