EPAFrançois Bayrou, the French prime minister, is set to lose a confidence vote on his stewardship, in the latest twist in a period of chaos inside the National Assembly.
Bayrou, 74, is the fourth prime minister in two years under President Emmanuel Macron, whose second term is office has been overshadowed by political instability.
Bayrou’s minority government called for €44bn (£38bn) of budget cuts to tackle France’s mounting public debt and is now is heading for collapse.
The BBC looks at what led to this political crisis and what could happen next.
How did we get here?
French President Emmanuel Macron took a gamble in June 2024.
Faced with a bruising loss for his party in the European Parliament vote, he called a snap parliamentary election which he hoped would achieve “a clear majority in serenity and harmony”.
Instead, it resulted in a hung, divided parliament that has made it difficult for any prime minister to garner the necessary support to pass bills and the yearly budget.
Macron appointed Michel Barnier last September but within three months the man who negotiated Brexit for the EU was out – the shortest period since France’s post-war Fifth Republic began.
Bayrou is set to suffer the same fate, just under nine months since he came to office last December.
Meanwhile some parties – chiefly on the far right and the far left – continue to clamour for an early presidential election.
Macron has always said he will not stand down before his term ends in 2027.
Instead, he will likely have to choose between appointing a fifth prime minister in less than two years – who again risks working on borrowed time – or calling snap elections for parliament, which could result in an even more hostile National Assembly.
There are few good options for the president as the effects of his June 2024 gamble continue to reverberate.
Bayrou’s key issue is France’s debt crisis, and what he says is the need to slash government spending to head off a catastrophe for future generations.
Why is France in debt crisis?
Simply put, France’s government has for decades spent more money than it has generated. As a result, it has to borrow to cover its budget.
The French government says, in early 2025, public debt stood at €3,345 billion, or 114% of GDP.
That is the third highest public debt in the eurozone after Greece and Italy, and equivalent to almost €50,000 per French citizen.
Last year’s budget deficit was 5.8% of GDP and this year’s is not expected to be 5.4%. So public debt will continue to grow as borrowing covers the shortfall.
France – like many developed nations – is facing the demographic headache of an ageing population – fewer workers being taxed and more people drawing the state pension.
Bayrou is among those French politicians who want to slash the deficit by redefining generous social programmes – such as state pensions.
In his speech to parliament on Monday, Bayrou spoke of a country on “life support” and addicted to spending.
Two years ago France raised the pension age from 62 to 64 for those born in 1968 or afterwards, and Bayrou has warned that the sense that French workers can stop working during their early 60s is now out of date.
However there is much opposition to further cuts. The government of Bayrou’s predecessor collapsed in a confidence vote on the issue last December.
Politicians on the left have called for tax rises, rather than budget cuts.
Bayrou has said his piece – what happens next?
If as expected Bayrou loses the vote in the National Assembly early this evening, then France is probably heading for another period of doubt, drift and speculation.
It is possible President Emmanuel Macron will act quickly to appoint a new prime minister – it’s certainly in the country’s interest that he do so.
But practicalities – and precedent – both suggest this could turn out to be a drawn-out process.
Macron has to find a name sufficiently unobjectionable to at least some of the parliamentary opposition that they won’t automatically bring him or her down.
The first two PMs in this benighted parliament – Barnier and Bayrou – took weeks to find. The third won’t be any easier.
In the meantime Bayrou would presumably stay on as caretaker head of government.
There is pressure from some quarters – notably Marine Le Pen’s National Rally – for a new dissolution of the Assembly and parliamentary elections. But there are also strong voices saying it would be a waste of time, because a new vote would be unlikely to change much.
Beyond that there are also voices – from the far left this time – calling for Macron’s resignation as president. But don’t watch this space. Knowing the character of the man, it is most unlikely to happen.
Who could replace Bayrou?
If Bayrou falls, pressure will be strong on Macron to name a successor from the left. The last two were from the right and centre, and a left alliance came out numerically top in the 2024 election.
Olivier Faure, the leader of the Socialist Party, would be one possibility. The 57-year-old has a group of 66 deputies in the National Assembly.
Two other possibilities from the left are former PM Bernard Cazeneuve, and the veteran ex-minister Pierre Moscovici, currently head of the Cour des Comptes, the official accounting office.
If Macron decides to stick with the centre and right, his first choice would probably be Sebastien Lecornu, 39, the current defence minister who is a member of Macron’s Renaissance party and said to be close to the president.
Another conservative whose name has been mentioned is the current minister of labour and health, Catherine Vautrin.
Two other possibilities from inside government are Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau, who now leads the Republicans, and Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin.
But with all eyes on the 2027 presidential election, would these heavyweights want the electoral kiss-of-death which is to be Macron’s next PM?
